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Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
11 Jan 2025 · ODI
Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 30%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 71%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngcaught · Avishka Fernando · Mahesh Theekshana0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Avishka Fernando · b Mahesh Theekshana | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Rachin Ravindrabowled · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Mark Chapmanbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 10 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 81 | 81 | 10 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · MNK Fernando · Eshan Malinga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MNK Fernando · b Eshan Malinga | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Asitha Fernando |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Kamindu Mendis · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Janith Liyanage 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Janith Liyanage | 13 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 13.33 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Kusal Mendis · Eshan Malinga 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Eshan Malinga | 17 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 58.62 |
|---|
 Matt Henrybowled · Eshan Malinga1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Eshan Malinga | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 18 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 3.71 | 6 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.4 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 4.57 | 7 | 1 |
| Eshan Malinga1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamindu Wickramasinghe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-3 (Will Young, 1.4) · 2-4 (Rachin Ravindra, 2.2) · 3-20 (Daryl Mitchell, 5.3) · 4-21 (Tom Latham, 6.2) · 5-21 (Glenn Phillips, 6.5) · 6-48 (Michael Bracewell, 13.0) · 7-77 (Mitchell Santner, 17.1) · 8-128 (Nathan Smith, 26.1) · 9-143 (Matt Henry, 28.2) · 10-150 (Mark Chapman, 29.4)
Recorded target: 291 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 20/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 22/5 |
| 8 | 2 | 24/5 |
| 9 | 8 | 32/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 35/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 38/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 45/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 48/6 |
| 14 | 7 | 55/6 |
| 15 | 10 | 65/6 |
| 16 | 1 | 66/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 72/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 79/7 |
| 19 | 13 | 92/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 96/7 |
| 21 | 9 | 105/7 |
| 22 | 5 | 110/7 |
| 23 | 5 | 115/7 |
| 24 | 7 | 122/7 |
| 25 | 4 | 126/7 |
| 26 | 2 | 128/7 |
| 27 | 12 | 140/8 |
| 28 | 2 | 142/8 |
| 29 | 4 | 146/9 |
| 30 | 4 | 150/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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