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West Africa Trophy · 2025/26 · Men
13 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 74%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamza Khanrun out · K Boniface · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Boniface | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| D Ndikubwimanacaught · Vincent Adewoye · Joshua Asia 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vincent Adewoye · b Joshua Asia | 30 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
| I Niyomugabocaught · Joshua Asia · Sylvester Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Asia · b Sylvester Okpe | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| D Gumyusengerun out · K Boniface · Sylvester Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Boniface | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| O Manishimwecaught · K Boniface · Sylvester Okpe 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · K Boniface · b Sylvester Okpe | 22 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 88.00 |
| run out · Isaac Okpe |
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 54.55 |
| E Rukirizacaught · Sulaimon Runsewe · Joshua Asia 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sulaimon Runsewe · b Joshua Asia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| JM Iradukundacaught · Sylvester Okpe · E Ndubudem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sylvester Okpe · b E Ndubudem | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Nadirbowled · Joshua Asia 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Joshua Asia | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Z Bimenyimanacaught · Ali Rahmon · Joshua Asia 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Rahmon · b Joshua Asia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| I Ntirenganyanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdullahi Ismail0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| E Ndubudem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4.29 | 1 | 0 |
| Joshua Asia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Hamza Khan, 0.3) · 2-5 (I Niyomugabo, 1.1) · 3-5 (D Gumyusenge, 1.3) · 4-57 (O Manishimwe, 10.3) · 5-61 (D Ndikubwimana, 11.4) · 6-61 (E Rukiriza, 11.5) · 7-62 (JM Iradukunda, 12.2) · 8-70 (Muhammad Nadir, 14.2) · 9-74 (Z Bimenyimana, 15.0) · 10-75 (C Rububagumya, 15.1)
Recorded target: 157 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/3 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/3 |
| 4 | 8 | 19/3 |
| 5 | 7 | 26/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 30/3 |
| 7 | 11 | 41/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 58/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 64/7 |
| 14 | 5 | 69/7 |
| 15 | 5 | 74/9 |
| 16 | 1 | 75/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.