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India tour of England · 2026 · Men
14 Jul 2026 · ODI
Edgbaston · Venue photographIndia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 31%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Harry Brook · Sam Curran1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Sam Curran | 11 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 52.38 |
 Shubman Gillretired hurt · Josh Tongue11 fours · 1 sixes | retired hurt | 80* | 75 | 11 | 1 | 106.67 |
 Virat Kohlilbw · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Shreyas Iyerrun out · Harry Brook · Jofra Archer2 fours · 0 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (India: 49% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Harry Brook |
| 35 |
| 53 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 66.04 |
 Washington Sundarnot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 52* | 63 | 4 | 1 | 82.54 |
|---|
 KL Rahulbowled · Josh Tongue0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Axar Patelnot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 57* | 52 | 5 | 1 | 109.62 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 20 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Josh Tongue0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.00 | 6 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 8 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.2 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 6.38 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 6.14 | 1 | 0 |
1-43 (Rohit Sharma, 7.3) · 2-48 (Virat Kohli, 8.3) · 3-157 (Shreyas Iyer, 27.0) · 4-160 (KL Rahul, 27.5)
Recorded target: 259 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 32/0 |
| 7 | 11 | 43/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 52/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 67/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 80/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 86/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 89/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 94/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 13 | 110/2 |
| 21 | 9 | 119/2 |
| 22 | 10 | 129/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 135/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 141/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 145/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 150/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 157/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 160/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 161/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 162/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 166/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 169/4 |
| 33 | 9 | 178/4 |
| 34 | 6 | 184/4 |
| 35 | 12 | 196/4 |
| 36 | 11 | 207/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 211/4 |
| 38 | 1 | 212/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 216/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 223/4 |
| 41 | 12 | 235/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 239/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 242/4 |
| 44 | 3 | 245/4 |
| 45 | 10 | 255/4 |
| 46 | 7 | 262/4 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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