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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Zimbabwe tour of Sri Lanka · 2023/24 · Men
14 Jan 2024 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 32%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 25% to 91% during the match (Sri Lanka: 9% to 76%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Wellington Masakadza · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Richard Ngarava | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Wellington Masakadza · Blessing Muzarabani 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Blessing Muzarabani | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 113.33 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Ryan Burl · Wellington Masakadza 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Burl · b Wellington Masakadza | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 130.77 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramabowled · Sikandar Raza 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sikandar Raza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Wellington Masakadza · Sikandar Raza 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Sikandar Raza |
| 16 |
| 22 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 72.73 |
 Angelo Mathewscaught · Wellington Masakadza · Blessing Muzarabani5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Blessing Muzarabani | 46 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 121.05 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangabowled · Sikandar Raza0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sikandar Raza | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Dasun Shanakanot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 26* | 18 | 4 | 0 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameeranot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Jongwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 12.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Williams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Pathum Nissanka, 0.3) · 2-32 (Kushal Janith Perera, 4.2) · 3-38 (Kusal Mendis, 5.2) · 4-51 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 7.1) · 5-83 (Charith Asalanka, 13.4) · 6-83 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 14.0) · 7-138 (Angelo Mathews, 19.4)
Recorded target: 144 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 18 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 36/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 43/3 |
| 7 | 8 | 51/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 52/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 54/4 |
| 10 | 7 | 61/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 66/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 68/4 |
| 13 | 12 | 80/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 83/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 87/6 |
| 16 | 11 | 98/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 110/6 |
| 18 | 8 | 118/6 |
| 19 | 12 | 130/6 |
| 20 | 14 | 144/7 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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