NetherlandsversusNepal

28 Feb 2024 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 2 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs184/4 Nepal20.0 overs182/8 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

40%Netherlands60%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Netherlands (1,563 vs 1,518 on our results rating)
Nepal are playing at home in Nepal
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 4 and Nepal won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 38%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 21% to 95% during the match (Nepal: 5% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.3: T van der Gugten to Karan KC, six by Karan KC. Nepal up from 24% to 47%.
2nd inns 19.2: RE van der Merwe to DS Airee, six by DS Airee. Nepal up from 34% to 79%.
2nd inns 19.6: RE van der Merwe to Pratis GC, 1 run to Pratis GC. Netherlands up from 65% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands184/4 Nepal182/8

Innings 2

Nepal

182/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Scott Edwards · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Vivian Kingma	0	4	0	0	0.00
Aasif Sheikhstumped · Scott Edwards · Roelof van der Merwe 4 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Scott Edwards · b Roelof van der Merwe	34	23	4	1	147.83
Rohit Kumarcaught · Scott Edwards · Sybrand Engelbrecht 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Sybrand Engelbrecht	50	36	6	2	138.89
Kushal Mallacaught · Teja Nidamanuru · Sybrand Engelbrecht 0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	1
Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	1
Michael Levitt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	29	0	14.50	1
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	1	11.25	1
Sybrand Engelbrecht0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	2	6.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	11	12/1
3	4	16/1
4	14	30/1
5	16	46/1
6	5	51/1
7	5	56/1
8	9	65/1
9	1	66/2
10	15	81/2
11	15	96/2
12	4	100/4
13	7	107/4
14	9	116/4
15	9	125/5
16	3	128/6
17	9	137/6
18	18	155/6
19	15	170/6
20	12	182/8

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