IndiaversusWest Indies

11 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

India won by 14 runs

India20.0 overs223/10 West Indies20.0 overs209/7 Holkar Cricket Stadium, Indore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

76%India24%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than West Indies (1,780 vs 1,648 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and West Indies won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 72%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

India's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 40%).

Biggest swings

1.4: S Joseph to SV Samson, SV Samson out. West Indies up from 28% to 40%.
10.5: G Motie to Naman Dhir, Naman Dhir out. West Indies up from 11% to 17%.
2nd inns 6.6: Naman Dhir to SO Hetmyer, SO Hetmyer out. India up from 83% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India223/10 West Indies209/7

Innings 1

India

223/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · Kamil Pooran · Shamar Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kamil Pooran · b Shamar Joseph	3	6	0	0	50.00
Abhishek Sharmacaught and bowled · Shamar Springer 6 fours · 5 sixes	caught and bowled · b Shamar Springer	69	30	6	5	230.00
Ishan Kishanstumped · Shai Hope · Roston Chase 6 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Shai Hope · b Roston Chase	37	18	6	1	205.56
Shreyas Iyerlbw · Roston Chase 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Roston Chase	1	2

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	0
Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	54	2	13.50	0
Keemo Paul0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	1
Shamar Springer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	2	12.50	2
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/1
3	18	29/1
4	16	45/1
5	21	66/1
6	21	87/1
7	11	98/1
8	11	109/1
9	8	117/3
10	8	125/4
11	11	136/5
12	8	144/5
13	18	162/5
14	6	168/5
15	6	174/6
16	13	187/6
17	9	196/7
18	6	202/7
19	8	210/9
20	13	223/10

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