MyanmarversusMongolia

8 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Myanmar won by 78 runs

Myanmar20.0 overs146/7 Mongolia20.0 overs68/10 Zhejiang University of Technology Cricket Field ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Myanmar more likely to win

77%Myanmar23%Mongolia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Myanmar rate stronger than Mongolia (1,440 vs 1,237 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Myanmar started on 75%; Myanmar batted first.

Myanmar’s chance of winning (%) · Mongolia is the rest

Myanmar's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Mongolia: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

0.3: O Erdenebaatar to TT Aung, four by TT Aung. Myanmar up from 78% to 81%.
0.6: O Erdenebaatar to KM Myat, 1 run to KM Myat. Myanmar up from 82% to 85%.
19.6: U Bayarjavkhlan to LL Htun, 2 runs to LL Htun. Myanmar up from 94% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Myanmar146/7 Mongolia68/10

Innings 2

Mongolia

68/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mongolia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
G Anujincaught and bowled · MPP San 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b MPP San	5	3	1	0	166.67
B Ichinkhorloocaught and bowled · SY Win 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b SY Win	11	31	0	0	35.48
T Ariuntsetseglbw · ZL Win 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b ZL Win	0	3	0	0	0.00
O Erdenebaatarcaught and bowled · SY Win 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b SY Win	8	32	0	0	25.00
B Namuunzulrun out · ZT Kyaw · TT Soe 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · ZT Kyaw	6	15	0	0	40.00
M Batnasancaught · LL Htun · TT Soe2 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
MPP San0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	1
ZL Win0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	6	1	1.50	1
TT Aung0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	0	2.00	0
ZL Thoon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	7	1	1.75	1
SY Win0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	2
AE Moe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	1
TT Soe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	2	8/2
3	3	11/2
4	5	16/2
5	1	17/2
6	2	19/2
7	3	22/2
8	1	23/2
9	1	24/2
10	2	26/2
11	7	33/2
12	2	35/4
13	1	36/4
14	7	43/4
15	4	47/5
16	7	54/5
17	4	58/7
18	4	62/7
19	2	64/8
20	4	68/10

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