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India tour of Sri Lanka · 2026 · Men
15 Aug 2026 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nishan Madushkacaught · Prasidh Krishna · Mohammed Siraj 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Prasidh Krishna · b Mohammed Siraj | 6 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Lahiru Udaracaught · Dhruv Jurel · Manav Suthar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhruv Jurel · b Manav Suthar | 16 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 27.59 |
| Pasindu Sooriyabandaralbw · Manav Suthar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Manav Suthar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · KL Rahul · Prasidh Krishna 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Prasidh Krishna | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Manav Suthar · Ravindra Jadeja7 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Manav Suthar · b Ravindra Jadeja |
| 59 |
| 151 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 39.07 |
| Sonal Dinushacaught · Dhruv Jurel · Manav Suthar 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dhruv Jurel · b Manav Suthar | 84 | 128 | 8 | 1 | 65.63 |
|---|
| Niroshan Dickwellacaught · Rishabh Pant · Prasidh Krishna 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Prasidh Krishna | 10 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 58.82 |
|---|
| Keshara Nuwanthabowled · Manav Suthar 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Manav Suthar | 20 | 69 | 3 | 0 | 28.99 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyabowled · Manav Suthar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Manav Suthar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaracaught · Rishabh Pant · Manav Suthar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Manav Suthar | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Siraj2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Manav Suthar2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.4 | 2 | 55 | 6 | 2.32 | 0 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 1.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja3 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 23.0 | 3 | 71 | 1 | 3.09 | 0 | 2 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 3.45 | 0 | 0 |
| Devdutt Padikkal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Nishan Madushka, 7.0) · 2-14 (Pasindu Sooriyabandara, 7.2) · 3-21 (Kamindu Mendis, 10.4) · 4-47 (Lahiru Udara, 21.4) · 5-142 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 55.2) · 6-156 (Niroshan Dickwella, 60.0) · 7-199 (Sonal Dinusha, 75.1) · 8-199 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 75.2) · 9-199 (Lahiru Kumara, 76.0) · 10-206 (Keshara Nuwantha, 77.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 14/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 18/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 21/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 21/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 23/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 28/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 31/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 33/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 34/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 36/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 40/3 |
| 19 | 0 | 40/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 41/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 42/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 49/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 53/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 54/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 59/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 62/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 69/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 74/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 75/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 76/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 77/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 79/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 84/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 89/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 91/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 92/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 94/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 96/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 96/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 97/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 98/4 |
| 43 | 7 | 105/4 |
| 44 | 3 | 108/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 113/4 |
| 46 | 2 | 115/4 |
| 47 | 4 | 119/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 120/4 |
| 49 | 9 | 129/4 |
| 50 | 1 | 130/4 |
| 51 | 8 | 138/4 |
| 52 | 1 | 139/4 |
| 53 | 1 | 140/4 |
| 54 | 1 | 141/4 |
| 55 | 1 | 142/4 |
| 56 | 2 | 144/5 |
| 57 | 7 | 151/5 |
| 58 | 0 | 151/5 |
| 59 | 2 | 153/5 |
| 60 | 3 | 156/6 |
| 61 | 4 | 160/6 |
| 62 | 0 | 160/6 |
| 63 | 2 | 162/6 |
| 64 | 6 | 168/6 |
| 65 | 6 | 174/6 |
| 66 | 0 | 174/6 |
| 67 | 1 | 175/6 |
| 68 | 5 | 180/6 |
| 69 | 6 | 186/6 |
| 70 | 0 | 186/6 |
| 71 | 7 | 193/6 |
| 72 | 2 | 195/6 |
| 73 | 0 | 195/6 |
| 74 | 1 | 196/6 |
| 75 | 3 | 199/6 |
| 76 | 0 | 199/9 |
| 77 | 1 | 200/9 |
| 78 | 6 | 206/10 |
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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