PakistanversusSouth Africa

16 Feb 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 53 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs144/7 South Africa16.5 overs91/9 Willowmoore Park, Benoni ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

23%Pakistan77%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Pakistan (1,620 vs 1,456 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 22%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.4: Sadia Iqbal to D van Niekerk, D van Niekerk out. Pakistan up from 29% to 42%.
2nd inns 4.1: Fatima Sana to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Pakistan up from 42% to 68%.
2nd inns 14.6: Nashra Sandhu to N de Klerk, A Dercksen out. Pakistan up from 68% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan144/7 South Africa91/9

Innings 1

Pakistan

144/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muneeba Alirun out · Laura Wolvaardt, Karabo Meso · Marizanne Kapp 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Laura Wolvaardt, Karabo Meso	0	2	0	0	0.00
Gull Ferozacaught · Annerie Dercksen · Masabata Klaas 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Masabata Klaas	0	2	0	0	0.00
Ayesha Zafarcaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nonkululeko Mlaba	19	21	0	1	90.48
Sidra Ameenrun out · Karabo Meso, Ayabonga Khaka · Nonkululeko Mlaba 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Karabo Meso, Ayabonga Khaka	26	25	2	0	104.00
Natalia Pervaizcaught · Tazmin Brits · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tazmin Brits · b Ayabonga Khaka	7

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	0	3.67	1
Masabata Klaas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	1	10.67	1
Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	3
Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	1
Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	2
Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	8	14/2
3	5	19/2
4	14	33/2
5	4	37/2
6	9	46/2
7	2	48/3
8	3	51/3
9	3	54/3
10	7	61/4
11	7	68/4
12	5	73/5
13	16	89/5
14	3	92/5
15	10	102/5
16	3	105/5
17	11	116/5
18	10	126/5
19	13	139/6
20	5	144/7

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