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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier Group C · 2024 · Men
25 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Malta more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malta started on 55%; Malta batted first.
Malta's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Rassolcaught · B George · J Shaju 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B George · b J Shaju | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| P Mishrarun out · R Dianish · J Shaju 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · R Dianish | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
| A Ahmadhelcaught · Zeeshan Khan · J Shaju 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zeeshan Khan · b J Shaju | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Firas Hussaincaught · Zeeshan Khan · VRB Arachchige 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zeeshan Khan · b VRB Arachchige | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Isa Zaroocaught · Zeeshan Khan · Bikram Arora 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zeeshan Khan · b Bikram Arora | 29 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 96.67 |
| caught · Jaspal Singh · b Bikram Arora |
| 55 |
| 31 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 177.42 |
| Danyal Rajacaught · J Shaju · Jaspal Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Shaju · b Jaspal Singh | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Zeerak Chughtainot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| A Dowlingbowled · J Shaju 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Shaju | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Huzaif Yousufnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Mathew0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| J Shaju0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 4 | 0 |
| VRB Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 10.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaspal Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bikram Arora0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 3 | 1 |
1-3 (Omar Rassol, 1.1) · 2-13 (P Mishra, 3.1) · 3-14 (A Ahmadhel, 3.4) · 4-39 (Firas Hussain, 6.1) · 5-106 (Isa Zaroo, 13.4) · 6-125 (M Gogev, 15.4) · 7-129 (Danyal Raja, 17.0) · 8-135 (A Dowling, 18.0)
Recorded target: 212 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 16/3 |
| 5 | 13 | 29/3 |
| 6 | 10 | 39/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 40/4 |
| 8 | 7 | 47/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 57/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 11 | 20 | 81/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 90/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 97/4 |
| 14 | 15 | 112/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 116/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 126/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 129/7 |
| 18 | 6 | 135/8 |
| 19 | 9 | 144/8 |
| 20 | 6 | 150/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.