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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
9 Oct 2026 · Test
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Matt Renshaw · Mitchell Starc7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Renshaw · b Mitchell Starc | 37 | 67 | 7 | 0 | 55.22 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Beau Webster · Josh Hazlewood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beau Webster · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Steve Smith · Pat Cummins 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Pat Cummins | 49 | 73 | 9 | 0 | 67.12 |
 |
| caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon |
| 3 |
| 27 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 11.11 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Josh Hazlewood · Pat Cummins 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Hazlewood · b Pat Cummins | 32 | 66 | 3 | 0 | 48.48 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught · C Connolly · Pat Cummins3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · C Connolly · b Pat Cummins | 30 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnecaught · Steve Smith · Nathan Lyon 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon | 13 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Travis Head · Josh Hazlewood6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Josh Hazlewood | 26 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 130.00 |
|---|
 Simon Harmernot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 35* | 75 | 4 | 1 | 46.67 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajcaught · Pat Cummins · Mitchell Starc2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pat Cummins · b Mitchell Starc | 34 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 77.27 |
|---|
| Anrich Nortjecaught · Steve Smith · Beau Webster 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Beau Webster | 16 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 0 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.0 | 2 | 63 | 2 | 3.71 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 16.0 | 2 | 54 | 2 | 3.38 | 0 | 1 |
 Pat Cummins2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.0 | 2 | 54 | 3 | 3.60 | 0 | 1 |
 Nathan Lyon3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 3 | 58 | 2 | 2.64 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Webster0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 0 | 1 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Ryan Rickelton, 1.3) · 2-84 (Aiden Markram, 20.4) · 3-93 (Temba Bavuma, 27.2) · 4-99 (David Bedingham, 30.1) · 5-155 (Wiaan Mulder, 46.3) · 6-162 (Tristan Stubbs, 48.2) · 7-197 (Kyle Verreynne, 53.5) · 8-197 (Marco Jansen, 54.2) · 9-249 (Keshav Maharaj, 69.3) · 10-284 (Anrich Nortje, 78.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 37/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 50/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 65/1 |
| 19 | 14 | 79/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 82/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 85/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 86/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 86/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 91/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 92/2 |
| 27 | 1 | 93/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 94/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 97/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 31 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 100/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 106/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 110/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 110/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 111/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 113/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 115/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 117/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 118/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 123/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 124/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 127/4 |
| 44 | 11 | 138/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 142/4 |
| 46 | 13 | 155/4 |
| 47 | 4 | 159/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 162/5 |
| 49 | 8 | 170/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 176/6 |
| 51 | 7 | 183/6 |
| 52 | 5 | 188/6 |
| 53 | 9 | 197/6 |
| 54 | 0 | 197/7 |
| 55 | 0 | 197/8 |
| 56 | 2 | 199/8 |
| 57 | 5 | 204/8 |
| 58 | 2 | 206/8 |
| 59 | 2 | 208/8 |
| 60 | 6 | 214/8 |
| 61 | 2 | 216/8 |
| 62 | 0 | 216/8 |
| 63 | 5 | 221/8 |
| 64 | 7 | 228/8 |
| 65 | 4 | 232/8 |
| 66 | 4 | 236/8 |
| 67 | 2 | 238/8 |
| 68 | 0 | 238/8 |
| 69 | 9 | 247/8 |
| 70 | 3 | 250/9 |
| 71 | 3 | 253/9 |
| 72 | 0 | 253/9 |
| 73 | 1 | 254/9 |
| 74 | 4 | 258/9 |
| 75 | 14 | 272/9 |
| 76 | 5 | 277/9 |
| 77 | 4 | 281/9 |
| 78 | 3 | 284/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Nic Maddinson: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Simon Harmer: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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