Lucknow Super GiantsversusPunjab Kings

30 Mar 2024 · T20

Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lucknow Super Giants won by 21 runs

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs199/8 Punjab Kings20.0 overs178/5 Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 55%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Punjab Kings is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Punjab Kings: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.4: MP Yadav to JM Bairstow, JM Bairstow out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 58% to 68%.
2nd inns 13.2: MP Yadav to P Simran Singh, six by P Simran Singh. Punjab Kings up from 46% to 56%.
2nd inns 13.3: MP Yadav to P Simran Singh, P Simran Singh out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 44% to 58%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants199/8 Punjab Kings178/5

Innings 1