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Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
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Sri Lanka Women tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Women
9 Mar 2025 · ODI
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 70%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Maddy Green · Jess Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Jess Kerr | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · Maddy Green · Jess Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Jess Kerr | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Harshitha Madavicaught · Eden Carson · Jess Kerr1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Eden Carson · b Jess Kerr | 8 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Imesha Dulanicaught · Polly Inglis · Eden Carson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Polly Inglis · b Eden Carson | 11 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 26.19 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 70% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 30%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Brooke Halliday |
| 45 |
| 54 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 83.33 |
 Nilakshi de Silvabowled · Eden Carson2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Eden Carson | 45 | 73 | 2 | 0 | 61.64 |
|---|
 Anushka Sanjeewanicaught · EJ Black · Fran Jonas1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EJ Black · b Fran Jonas | 23 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 67.65 |
|---|
| Sachini Nisansalabowled · Fran Jonas 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fran Jonas | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sugandika Kumaricaught · Bree Illing · Fran Jonas0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bree Illing · b Fran Jonas | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Achini Kulasuriyacaught · Brooke Halliday · Maddy Green2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brooke Halliday · b Maddy Green | 9 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 39.13 |
|---|
| Chethana Vimukthinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 3.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 2.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Fran Jonas0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 4.00 | 8 | 0 |
| Eden Carson2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 29 | 2 | 2.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 4.88 | 1 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Maddy Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 3.2) · 2-20 (Chamari Atapattu, 7.1) · 3-23 (Harshitha Madavi, 9.2) · 4-57 (Imesha Dulani, 19.4) · 5-103 (Kavisha Dilhari, 29.1) · 6-150 (Anushka Sanjeewani, 40.4) · 7-152 (Sachini Nisansala, 42.3) · 8-155 (Nilakshi de Silva, 43.3) · 9-162 (Sugandika Kumari, 45.0) · 10-182 (Achini Kulasuriya, 50.0)
Recorded target: 281 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 21/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 24/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 29/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 31/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 32/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 33/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 38/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 41/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 45/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 50/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 57/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 57/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 65/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 72/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 77/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 83/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 86/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 89/4 |
| 28 | 12 | 101/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 103/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 107/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 109/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 114/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 116/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 120/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 125/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 128/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 129/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 134/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 137/5 |
| 40 | 9 | 146/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 151/6 |
| 42 | 0 | 151/6 |
| 43 | 4 | 155/7 |
| 44 | 1 | 156/8 |
| 45 | 6 | 162/9 |
| 46 | 3 | 165/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 166/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 169/9 |
| 49 | 8 | 177/9 |
| 50 | 5 | 182/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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