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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
9 Jul 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 34%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasanbowled · Brian Bennett 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Brian Bennett | 57 | 70 | 5 | 1 | 81.43 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Craig Ervine · Blessing Muzarabani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Ervine · b Blessing Muzarabani | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Clive Madande · Brad Evans1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Clive Madande · b Brad Evans | 9 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 56.25 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Brad Evans · Wesley Madhevere5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brad Evans · b Wesley Madhevere |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 10% to 74% during the match (Bangladesh: 26% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 60 |
| 90 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Nurul Hasancaught · RP Burl · Richard Ngarava 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RP Burl · b Richard Ngarava | 38 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 92.68 |
|---|
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikatcaught · Blessing Muzarabani · Richard Ngarava1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Blessing Muzarabani · b Richard Ngarava | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Brad Evans · Richard Ngarava3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brad Evans · b Richard Ngarava | 27 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Sikandar Raza · Blessing Muzarabani1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Blessing Muzarabani | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedlbw · Sikandar Raza0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sikandar Raza | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Shariful Islambowled · Brad Evans1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Evans | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Nahid Rananot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 14 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 55 | 3 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 33 | 2 | 3.30 | 3 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 5.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Newman Nyamhuri0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 3 | 1 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Bennett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Madhevere1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Soumya Sarkar, 3.2) · 2-38 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 8.4) · 3-122 (Tanzid Hasan, 26.3) · 4-169 (Tawhid Hridoy, 36.1) · 5-176 (Mosaddek Hossain Saikat, 37.4) · 6-207 (Nurul Hasan, 42.0) · 7-219 (Rishad Hossain, 45.3) · 8-222 (Taskin Ahmed, 46.2) · 9-234 (Shariful Islam, 48.0) · 10-234 (Mehedi Hasan, 48.1)
Recorded target: 248 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 38/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 49/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 55/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 56/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 64/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 77/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 81/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 86/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 101/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 108/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 111/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 118/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 121/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 123/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 126/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 129/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 130/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 138/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 147/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 147/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 154/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 158/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 169/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 172/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 176/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 181/5 |
| 40 | 10 | 191/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 195/5 |
| 42 | 12 | 207/6 |
| 43 | 4 | 211/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 215/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 218/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 221/7 |
| 47 | 10 | 231/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 234/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 234/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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