Sierra LeoneversusBotswana

27 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Sierra Leone won by 6 runs

Sierra Leone20.0 overs80/5 Botswana18.3 overs74/10 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 1, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Sierra Leone47%Botswana

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sierra Leone rate stronger than Botswana (1,469 vs 1,413 on our results rating)
Botswana are playing at home in Botswana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sierra Leone started on 50%; Sierra Leone batted first.

Sierra Leone’s chance of winning (%) · Botswana is the rest

Sierra Leone's chances ranged from 12% to 75% during the match (Botswana: 25% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.1: E Kamara to M Phiase, M Phiase out. Sierra Leone up from 34% to 58%.
2nd inns 17.4: E Kamara to A Motorwala, A Motorwala out. Sierra Leone up from 52% to 74%.
2nd inns 18.3: L Bull to K Inakale, TB Godisamang out. Sierra Leone up from 56% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sierra Leone80/5 Botswana74/10

Innings 2

Botswana

74/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Botswana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
L Mophakedicaught · C Bull · AM Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Bull · b AM Kamara	6	8	0	0	75.00
O Kgeresirun out · C Bull · L Bull 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · C Bull	28	37	1	0	75.68
T Shadracklbw · AM Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b AM Kamara	4	10	0	0	40.00
W Moutswibowled · Aminata Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Aminata Kamara	8	13	0	0	61.54
G Matomecaught · AM Kamara · Aminata Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AM Kamara · b Aminata Kamara	9	14	0	0	64.29
A Mokgotlhecaught · M Sheriff · Emma Kamara0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
AM Kamara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	8	2	2.67	0
A Fillie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	2
C Bull0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	0	4.25	1
Aminata Kamara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	0
Emma Kamara0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	3	3.67	4
L Bull0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	10	1	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/0
3	4	15/1
4	7	22/1
5	0	22/2
6	5	27/2
7	4	31/2
8	5	36/2
9	2	38/3
10	2	40/3
11	4	44/3
12	5	49/3
13	4	53/4
14	4	57/5
15	6	63/6
16	3	66/6
17	2	68/7
18	4	72/9
19	2	74/10

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