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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Zimbabwe Twenty20 Tri-Series · 2025 · Men
16 Jul 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 45%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 26% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LG Pretoriuscaught · Tim Seifert · Matt Henry 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Seifert · b Matt Henry | 27 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 158.82 |
 Reeza Hendricksbowled · Mitchell Santner2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Santner | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Rubin Hermanncaught · Matt Henry · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Henry · b Jacob Duffy | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Senuran Muthusamybowled · Ish Sodhi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ish Sodhi | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| HE van der Dussenrun out · Tim Seifert, Mitchell Santner · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| run out · Tim Seifert, Mitchell Santner |
| 6 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| Dewald Breviscaught · Daryl Mitchell · Matt Henry 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Matt Henry | 35 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 194.44 |
|---|
| George Lindecaught · Devon Conway · Jacob Duffy 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Jacob Duffy | 30 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschlbw · Ish Sodhi 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Ish Sodhi | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Gerald Coetzeecaught · James Neesham · Matt Henry 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · James Neesham · b Matt Henry | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 106.25 |
|---|
| Kwena Maphakacaught · Mitchell Santner · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 10.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| James Neesham0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-34 (LG Pretorius, 3.2) · 2-35 (Rubin Hermann, 4.2) · 3-50 (Reeza Hendricks, 6.2) · 4-60 (Senuran Muthusamy, 7.5) · 5-62 (HE van der Dussen, 8.4) · 6-101 (Dewald Brevis, 12.0) · 7-111 (Corbin Bosch, 13.1) · 8-148 (George Linde, 17.4) · 9-148 (Kwena Maphaka, 17.5) · 10-152 (Gerald Coetzee, 18.2)
Recorded target: 174 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 6 | 13 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 55/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 61/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 71/5 |
| 10 | 5 | 76/5 |
| 11 | 9 | 85/5 |
| 12 | 16 | 101/6 |
| 13 | 10 | 111/6 |
| 14 | 4 | 115/7 |
| 15 | 10 | 125/7 |
| 16 | 11 | 136/7 |
| 17 | 7 | 143/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 148/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 152/10 |
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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