New ZealandversusSouth Africa

Too close to call

Why

• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and New Zealand won 3
• On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,636 vs 1,605 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

New Zealand started on 45%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand's chances ranged from 26% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 74%).

Biggest swings

1. 9.3: KT Maphaka to JDS Neesham, JDS Neesham out. South Africa up from 62% to 74%.
2. 2nd inns 11.6: MJ Henry to D Brevis, D Brevis out. New Zealand up from 80% to 93%.
3. 2nd inns 17.4: JA Duffy to GF Linde, GF Linde out. New Zealand up from 78% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.