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Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
22 May 2026 · T20
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
Nottinghamshire started on 55%; Nottinghamshire batted first.
Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Yorkshire: 33% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Lythcaught · Oli Stone · Dillon Pennington1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Oli Stone · b Dillon Pennington | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Jonny Bairstownot out9 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 83* | 47 | 9 | 4 | 176.60 |
 William Luxtonbowled · Mohammad Ali1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Ali | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| James Whartoncaught · Tom Moores · Dillon Pennington 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tom Moores · b Dillon Pennington | 55 | 41 | 4 | 3 |
| 134.15 |
 Moeen Alinot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Pennington0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 11.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Mohammad Ali0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
 Oli Stone0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 16.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Benny Howell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 8.57 | 0 | 0 |
| JA Pocklington0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Adam Lyth, 0.3) · 2-11 (William Luxton, 1.4) · 3-155 (James Wharton, 15.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 13/2 |
| 3 | 8 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 16 | 39/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 61/2 |
| 9 | 17 | 78/2 |
| 10 | 16 | 94/2 |
| 11 | 17 | 111/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 118/2 |
| 13 | 17 | 135/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 139/2 |
| 15 | 16 | 155/3 |
| 16 | 7 | 162/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 169/3 |
William Luxton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Andrew Tye: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Moores: Dave Morton · Public domain
Benny Howell: Evertonfc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Hill: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Revis: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jonny Bairstow: Mcadge · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Lyth: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Moeen Ali: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Dominic Bess: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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