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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
24 Sept 2026 · ODI
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 55%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Matthew Breetzke · Keshav Maharaj5 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Keshav Maharaj | 60 | 36 | 5 | 6 | 166.67 |
 Travis Headcaught · David Miller · Marco Jansen5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · David Miller · b Marco Jansen | 36 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 97.30 |
| Cooper Connollycaught · David Miller · Bjorn Fortuin 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · David Miller · b Bjorn Fortuin | 38 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 90.48 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Marco Jansen · Bjorn Fortuin0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen |
South Africa's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 81%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
 Matt Renshawcaught · Marco Jansen · Gerald Coetzee6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Gerald Coetzee | 44 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 89.80 |
|---|
 Cameron Greencaught · Matthew Breetzke · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Keshav Maharaj | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jack Edwardscaught · Marco Jansen · Keshav Maharaj 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Keshav Maharaj | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Marco Jansen · Corbin Bosch2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Corbin Bosch | 16 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 59.26 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisbowled · Corbin Bosch 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Corbin Bosch | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Adam Zampacaught · Matthew Breetzke · Keshav Maharaj1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Keshav Maharaj | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 9.14 | 0 | 1 |
| Gerald Coetzee1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | 7.44 | 5 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-90 (Mitchell Marsh, 9.2) · 2-129 (Travis Head, 16.1) · 3-134 (Josh Inglis, 18.0) · 4-156 (Cooper Connolly, 22.0) · 5-176 (Cameron Green, 25.2) · 6-188 (Jack Edwards, 29.3) · 7-215 (Matt Renshaw, 36.2) · 8-221 (Mitchell Starc, 38.1) · 9-230 (Nathan Ellis, 41.0) · 10-230 (Adam Zampa, 41.2)
Recorded target: 298 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 27/0 |
| 5 | 17 | 44/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 53/0 |
| 7 | 19 | 72/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 77/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 89/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 96/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 99/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 103/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 110/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 111/1 |
| 15 | 13 | 124/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 129/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 132/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 134/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 141/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 146/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 152/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 156/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 158/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 165/4 |
| 25 | 11 | 176/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 177/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 180/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 182/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 185/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 189/6 |
| 31 | 14 | 203/6 |
| 32 | 0 | 203/6 |
| 33 | 1 | 204/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 205/6 |
| 35 | 0 | 205/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 211/6 |
| 37 | 5 | 216/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 220/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 224/8 |
| 40 | 0 | 224/8 |
| 41 | 6 | 230/9 |
| 42 | 0 | 230/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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