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Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
24 Sept 2026 · ODI
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 55%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Quinton de Kockcaught · Josh Inglis · Nathan Ellis1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Nathan Ellis | 14 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 77.78 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Matt Renshaw · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Renshaw · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Josh Inglis · Adam Zampa4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Adam Zampa | 30 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Matthew Breetzkerun out · Cooper Connolly, Josh Inglis · Jack Edwards 14 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Cooper Connolly, Josh Inglis | 112 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 105.66 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 81%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Matt Renshaw · b Adam Zampa |
| 27 |
| 26 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 103.85 |
 David Millercaught and bowled · Nathan Ellis0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 9 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 36.00 |
|---|
 Marco Jansenlbw · Nathan Ellis7 fours · 4 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Ellis | 75 | 59 | 7 | 4 | 127.12 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Gerald Coetzeerun out · Josh Inglis · Jack Edwards 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Josh Inglis | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 3 | 5.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Edwards0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 7.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Tony de Zorzi, 3.1) · 2-29 (Quinton de Kock, 7.1) · 3-83 (Temba Bavuma, 18.1) · 4-125 (Ryan Rickelton, 24.3) · 5-168 (David Miller, 33.5) · 6-275 (Matthew Breetzke, 47.2) · 7-289 (Marco Jansen, 49.0) · 8-296 (Gerald Coetzee, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 40/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 44/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 60/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 83/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 90/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 96/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 103/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 112/3 |
| 24 | 11 | 123/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 125/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 134/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 138/4 |
| 29 | 11 | 149/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 152/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 159/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 165/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 166/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 168/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 171/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 175/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 182/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 184/5 |
| 39 | 16 | 200/5 |
| 40 | 8 | 208/5 |
| 41 | 10 | 218/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 221/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 227/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 233/5 |
| 45 | 10 | 243/5 |
| 46 | 13 | 256/5 |
| 47 | 17 | 273/5 |
| 48 | 5 | 278/6 |
| 49 | 11 | 289/7 |
| 50 | 8 | 297/8 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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