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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
18 May 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 52%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 75% during the match (Nepal: 25% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseybowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 21 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 67.74 |
| Finlay McCreathlbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Ishan Pandey · Sandeep Lamichhane 6 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Ishan Pandey · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 73 | 44 | 6 | 6 | 165.91 |
| Richie Berringtonbowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Michael Englishcaught · Sompal Kami · Nandan Yadav 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sompal Kami · b Nandan Yadav | 51 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 70.83 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
 Mark Wattcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Sompal Kami1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Sompal Kami | 20 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 58.82 |
|---|
| Michael Leasklbw · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Oliver Davidsonbowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| O Jonesstumped · Aasif Sheikh · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Brad Currienot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.08 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Finlay McCreath, 4.0) · 2-71 (George Munsey, 11.3) · 3-84 (Richie Berrington, 14.1) · 4-126 (Brandon McMullen, 20.0) · 5-130 (Matty Cross, 21.4) · 6-175 (Mark Watt, 32.3) · 7-179 (Michael Leask, 34.3) · 8-179 (Oliver Davidson, 34.5) · 9-183 (O Jones, 36.1) · 10-194 (Michael English, 39.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 19 | 37/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 66/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 84/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 92/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 98/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 100/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 107/3 |
| 19 | 8 | 115/3 |
| 20 | 11 | 126/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 129/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 130/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 132/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 136/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 137/5 |
| 26 | 4 | 141/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 142/5 |
| 28 | 6 | 148/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 152/5 |
| 30 | 6 | 158/5 |
| 31 | 8 | 166/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 170/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 175/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 178/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 179/8 |
| 36 | 4 | 183/8 |
| 37 | 1 | 184/9 |
| 38 | 3 | 187/9 |
| 39 | 7 | 194/9 |
| 40 | 0 | 194/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
