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Photo: Mtaylor848
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Australia tour of England · 2024 · Men
21 Sept 2024 · ODI
Headingley · Venue photographAustralia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 64%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 12 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Ben Duckettcaught and bowled · Aaron Hardie4 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Aaron Hardie | 32 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 128.00 |
 Will Jackscaught · Matthew Short · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Harry Brooklbw · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Mitchell Starc |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
 Jamie Smithcaught · J Fraser-McGurk · Josh Hazlewood6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · J Fraser-McGurk · b Josh Hazlewood | 49 | 61 | 6 | 2 | 80.33 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonecaught · Alex Carey · Aaron Hardie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Aaron Hardie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Mitchell Starc · Glenn Maxwell 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Starc · b Glenn Maxwell | 25 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Aaron Hardie · Adam Zampa2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aaron Hardie · b Adam Zampa | 26 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 56.52 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidlbw · Glenn Maxwell2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Glenn Maxwell | 27 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 79.41 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottsnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
|---|
 Oli Stonecaught · Steve Smith · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 8 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 4 wides · 2 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 50 | 3 | 5.36 | 4 | 2 |
 Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 6.75 | 2 | 2 |
| Aaron Hardie2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Glenn Maxwell1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-26 (Philip Salt, 4.0) · 2-28 (Will Jacks, 4.3) · 3-46 (Harry Brook, 7.0) · 4-65 (Ben Duckett, 9.2) · 5-65 (Liam Livingstone, 9.3) · 6-120 (Jacob Bethell, 21.1) · 7-159 (Jamie Smith, 30.3) · 8-176 (Brydon Carse, 33.5) · 9-201 (Adil Rashid, 39.5) · 10-202 (Oli Stone, 40.2)
Recorded target: 271 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 28/2 |
| 6 | 14 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 46/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 55/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 65/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 65/5 |
| 11 | 10 | 75/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 81/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 88/5 |
| 14 | 0 | 88/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 94/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 98/5 |
| 17 | 8 | 106/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 109/5 |
| 19 | 1 | 110/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 114/5 |
| 21 | 6 | 120/5 |
| 22 | 0 | 120/6 |
| 23 | 8 | 128/6 |
| 24 | 1 | 129/6 |
| 25 | 7 | 136/6 |
| 26 | 5 | 141/6 |
| 27 | 3 | 144/6 |
| 28 | 8 | 152/6 |
| 29 | 5 | 157/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 159/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 164/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 166/7 |
| 33 | 8 | 174/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 176/8 |
| 35 | 2 | 178/8 |
| 36 | 11 | 189/8 |
| 37 | 3 | 192/8 |
| 38 | 3 | 195/8 |
| 39 | 4 | 199/8 |
| 40 | 3 | 202/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 202/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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