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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
6 Dec 2024 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswallbw · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 KL Rahulcaught · Nathan McSweeney · Mitchell Starc6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan McSweeney · b Mitchell Starc | 37 | 64 | 6 | 0 | 57.81 |
 Shubman Gilllbw · Scott Boland5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Scott Boland | 31 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 60.78 |
 |
| caught · Steve Smith · b Mitchell Starc |
| 7 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 87.50 |
 Rishabh Pantcaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Pat Cummins2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Pat Cummins | 21 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Rohit Sharmalbw · Scott Boland0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Scott Boland | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 13.04 |
|---|
 Nitish Kumar Reddycaught · Travis Head · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Mitchell Starc | 42 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 77.78 |
|---|
 Ravichandran Ashwinlbw · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Starc | 22 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Harshit Ranabowled · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jasprit Bumrahcaught · Usman Khawaja · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khawaja · b Pat Cummins | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 1 · noballs: 7 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc2 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 14.1 | 2 | 48 | 6 | 3.39 | 1 | 2 |
 Pat Cummins4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 4 | 41 | 2 | 3.42 | 0 | 0 |
 Scott Boland0 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 13.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 4.15 | 0 | 3 |
 Nathan Lyon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Marsh0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 2 |
1-0 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 0.1) · 2-69 (KL Rahul, 18.4) · 3-77 (Virat Kohli, 20.1) · 4-81 (Shubman Gill, 21.1) · 5-87 (Rohit Sharma, 25.5) · 6-109 (Rishabh Pant, 32.5) · 7-141 (Ravichandran Ashwin, 38.2) · 8-141 (Harshit Rana, 38.5) · 9-176 (Jasprit Bumrah, 43.3) · 10-180 (Nitish Kumar Reddy, 44.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 10/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 30/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 38/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 38/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 43/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 53/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 56/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 61/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 67/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 77/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 81/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 82/4 |
| 23 | 0 | 82/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 84/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 86/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 87/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 90/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 91/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 94/5 |
| 30 | 1 | 95/5 |
| 31 | 5 | 100/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 107/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 109/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 112/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 118/6 |
| 36 | 8 | 126/6 |
| 37 | 7 | 133/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 141/6 |
| 39 | 0 | 141/8 |
| 40 | 5 | 146/8 |
| 41 | 8 | 154/8 |
| 42 | 21 | 175/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 176/8 |
| 44 | 4 | 180/9 |
| 45 | 0 | 180/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ravichandran Ashwin: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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