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South Africa tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Men
21 Oct 2024 · Test
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mahmudul Hasan Joycaught · David Bedingham · Kagiso Rabada5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · David Bedingham · b Kagiso Rabada | 40 | 92 | 5 | 0 | 43.48 |
| Shadman Islamcaught · Tony de Zorzi · Kagiso Rabada 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony de Zorzi · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
 Mominul Haquecaught · Wiaan Mulder · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Kagiso Rabada | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 |
| lbw · b Keshav Maharaj |
| 23 |
| 49 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 46.94 |
 Mushfiqur Rahimbowled · Kagiso Rabada3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kagiso Rabada | 33 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 84.62 |
|---|
 Litton Dascaught · Kyle Verreynne · Keshav Maharaj1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Keshav Maharaj | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Wiaan Mulder · Kagiso Rabada10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Kagiso Rabada | 97 | 191 | 10 | 1 | 50.79 |
|---|
 Jaker Alilbw · Keshav Maharaj7 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Keshav Maharaj | 58 | 111 | 7 | 0 | 52.25 |
|---|
 Nayeem Hasanlbw · Kagiso Rabada1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kagiso Rabada | 16 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 55.17 |
|---|
 Taijul Islamcaught · Tristan Stubbs · Wiaan Mulder1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Wiaan Mulder | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Hasan Mahmudnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 0 · noballs: 7 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada4 maidens · 0 wides · 5 no-balls | 17.5 | 4 | 46 | 6 | 2.58 | 0 | 5 |
 Wiaan Mulder3 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 13.0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 3.08 | 0 | 2 |
 Keshav Maharaj10 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 37.0 | 10 | 105 | 3 | 2.84 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Piedt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 0 | 95 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Shadman Islam, 2.1) · 2-4 (Mominul Haque, 2.4) · 3-59 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 18.5) · 4-105 (Mahmudul Hasan Joy, 31.1) · 5-106 (Mushfiqur Rahim, 31.3) · 6-112 (Litton Das, 34.5) · 7-250 (Jaker Ali, 75.1) · 8-284 (Nayeem Hasan, 85.3) · 9-303 (Taijul Islam, 88.3) · 10-307 (Mehedi Hasan, 89.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 4/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 9/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 9/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 19/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 29/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 31/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 39/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 56/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 57/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 57/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 59/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 69/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 76/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 79/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 80/3 |
| 24 | 8 | 88/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 90/3 |
| 26 | 8 | 98/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 103/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 105/3 |
| 30 | 0 | 105/3 |
| 31 | 0 | 105/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 106/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 107/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 108/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 112/6 |
| 36 | 5 | 117/6 |
| 37 | 0 | 117/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 121/6 |
| 39 | 6 | 127/6 |
| 40 | 0 | 127/6 |
| 41 | 0 | 127/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 131/6 |
| 43 | 0 | 131/6 |
| 44 | 0 | 131/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 137/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 145/6 |
| 47 | 0 | 145/6 |
| 48 | 3 | 148/6 |
| 49 | 8 | 156/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 162/6 |
| 51 | 5 | 167/6 |
| 52 | 9 | 176/6 |
| 53 | 1 | 177/6 |
| 54 | 7 | 184/6 |
| 55 | 1 | 185/6 |
| 56 | 3 | 188/6 |
| 57 | 0 | 188/6 |
| 58 | 4 | 192/6 |
| 59 | 3 | 195/6 |
| 60 | 1 | 196/6 |
| 61 | 4 | 200/6 |
| 62 | 0 | 200/6 |
| 63 | 1 | 201/6 |
| 64 | 0 | 201/6 |
| 65 | 8 | 209/6 |
| 66 | 5 | 214/6 |
| 67 | 4 | 218/6 |
| 68 | 8 | 226/6 |
| 69 | 3 | 229/6 |
| 70 | 0 | 229/6 |
| 71 | 4 | 233/6 |
| 72 | 1 | 234/6 |
| 73 | 5 | 239/6 |
| 74 | 6 | 245/6 |
| 75 | 5 | 250/6 |
| 76 | 2 | 252/7 |
| 77 | 4 | 256/7 |
| 78 | 6 | 262/7 |
| 79 | 5 | 267/7 |
| 80 | 0 | 267/7 |
| 81 | 4 | 271/7 |
| 82 | 5 | 276/7 |
| 83 | 0 | 276/7 |
| 84 | 2 | 278/7 |
| 85 | 5 | 283/7 |
| 86 | 5 | 288/8 |
| 87 | 7 | 295/8 |
| 88 | 4 | 299/8 |
| 89 | 5 | 304/9 |
| 90 | 3 | 307/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mahmudul Hasan Joy: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mominul Haque: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taijul Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nayeem Hasan: IqbalHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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