ThailandversusScotland

15 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Scotland won by 2 wickets

Thailand20.0 overs136/5 Scotland20.0 overs137/8 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

64%Thailand36%Scotland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Scotland (1,670 vs 1,542 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 5 and Thailand won 1
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 63%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 9% to 90% during the match (Scotland: 10% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: P Maya to R Slater, four by R Slater. Scotland up from 23% to 50%.
2nd inns 19.1: T Putthawong to R Slater, four by R Slater. Scotland up from 63% to 90%.
2nd inns 19.6: T Putthawong to HRA Rainey, 1 run to HRA Rainey. Scotland up from 74% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand136/5 Scotland137/8

Innings 2

Scotland

137/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ailsa Listerlbw · T Putthawong 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b T Putthawong	7	13	1	0	53.85
Darcey Cartercaught · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · Suleeporn Laomi 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · b Suleeporn Laomi	26	31	3	0	83.87
Ellen Watsoncaught · Onnicha Kamchomphu · Suleeporn Laomi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Onnicha Kamchomphu · b Suleeporn Laomi	9	13	1	0	69.23
Sarah Brycecaught · Onnicha Kamchomphu · S Chaturongrattana 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Onnicha Kamchomphu · b S Chaturongrattana	31	21	4	0	147.62
Megan McCollcaught · Natthakan Chantam · S Chaturongrattana 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Natthakan Chantam · b S Chaturongrattana	23	18

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Phannita Maya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	2	0
T Putthawong0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	1	0
Chanida Sutthiruang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0	0
Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	2	4.00	0	0
Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	30	0	10.00	0	1
S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	3	6.75	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	10	17/0
4	3	20/1
5	6	26/1
6	3	29/1
7	3	32/1
8	5	37/1
9	6	43/2
10	7	50/2
11	3	53/3
12	10	63/3
13	9	72/3
14	18	90/3
15	5	95/4
16	6	101/4
17	3	104/6
18	16	120/6
19	10	130/6
20	7	137/8

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