ThailandversusScotland

Thailand more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Scotland (1,670 vs 1,542 on our results rating)
• In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 5 and Thailand won 1
• Thailand are playing at home in Thailand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Thailand started on 63%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand's chances ranged from 9% to 90% during the match (Scotland: 10% to 91%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 17.6: P Maya to R Slater, four by R Slater. Scotland up from 23% to 50%.
2. 2nd inns 19.1: T Putthawong to R Slater, four by R Slater. Scotland up from 63% to 90%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: T Putthawong to HRA Rainey, 1 run to HRA Rainey. Scotland up from 74% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.