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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
13 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 31%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ishma Tanjimcaught · Cara Murray · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cara Murray · b Orla Prendergast | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 13.33 |
 Fargana Hoquecaught · Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Orla Prendergast | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Sharmin Akhterlbw · Laura Delany2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Laura Delany | 24 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 53.33 |
 Nigar Sultanacaught · Amy Hunter · Jane Maguire7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Jane Maguire | 51 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 9% to 92% during the match (Bangladesh: 8% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 68 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Jane Maguire · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Arlene Kelly | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Ritu Moninot out 6 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 67* | 61 | 6 | 1 | 109.84 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatunbowled · Ava Canning2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ava Canning | 28 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
| Jannatul Ferduscaught · Jane Maguire · Arlene Kelly 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Arlene Kelly | 19 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 82.61 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khanstumped · Amy Hunter · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Amy Hunter · b Cara Murray | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
|---|
 Nahida Akternot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 17 | 2 | 0 | 105.88 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 16 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 4.78 | 6 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 53 | 2 | 5.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Ava Canning0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 5.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.4 | 0 | 65 | 1 | 6.72 | 1 | 1 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Fargana Hoque, 0.3) · 2-2 (Ishma Tanjim, 4.2) · 3-54 (Sharmin Akhter, 16.4) · 4-82 (Sobhana Mostary, 21.2) · 5-94 (Nigar Sultana, 25.2) · 6-139 (Fahima Khatun, 34.4) · 7-179 (Jannatul Ferdus, 40.3) · 8-186 (Rabeya Khan, 43.1)
Recorded target: 236 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 2/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 2/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 3/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 9/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 12/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 16/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 24/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 25/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 33/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 37/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 42/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 49/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 55/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 62/3 |
| 19 | 10 | 72/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 78/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 82/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 87/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 90/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 94/4 |
| 26 | 5 | 99/5 |
| 27 | 9 | 108/5 |
| 28 | 6 | 114/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 118/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 121/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 127/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 130/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 136/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 137/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 139/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 145/6 |
| 37 | 5 | 150/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 158/6 |
| 39 | 10 | 168/6 |
| 40 | 9 | 177/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 182/7 |
| 42 | 3 | 185/7 |
| 43 | 1 | 186/7 |
| 44 | 5 | 191/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 198/8 |
| 46 | 8 | 206/8 |
| 47 | 8 | 214/8 |
| 48 | 13 | 227/8 |
| 49 | 13 | 240/8 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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