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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
20 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 64%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmabowled · Bernard Scholtz 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Bernard Scholtz | 30 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 71.43 |
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Jack Brassell · Tangeni Lungameni 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jack Brassell · b Tangeni Lungameni | 19 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 65.52 |
 Alishan Sharafucaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Gerhard Erasmus4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Gerhard Erasmus | 30 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 71.43 |
| Vishnu Sukumarancaught · Tangeni Lungameni · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 8 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Tangeni Lungameni · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 97 | 90 | 8 | 5 | 107.78 |
| Asif Khanbowled · Bernard Scholtz0 fours · 0 sixes |
Namibia's chances ranged from 45% to 99% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 1% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Bernard Scholtz |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Rahul Chopralbw · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Basil Hameedcaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 6 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 71 | 47 | 6 | 4 | 151.06 |
|---|
| Ali Naseernot out 2 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 38* | 21 | 2 | 3 | 180.95 |
|---|
| Rahul Bhatiabowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquecaught and bowled · Tangeni Lungameni 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Tangeni Lungameni | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Jawadullahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 15 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tangeni Lungameni1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Jan-Izak de Villiers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 7.29 | 6 | 1 |
| Bernard Scholtz1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 79 | 4 | 9.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 7 | 0 |
1-42 (Waseem Muhammad, 8.3) · 2-82 (Aryansh Sharma, 17.1) · 3-97 (Alishan Sharafu, 20.2) · 4-100 (Asif Khan, 22.0) · 5-114 (Rahul Chopra, 25.1) · 6-269 (Basil Hameed, 43.1) · 7-284 (Vishnu Sukumaran, 46.0) · 8-295 (Rahul Bhatia, 48.0) · 9-306 (Junaid Siddique, 48.5)
Recorded target: 314 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 42/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 48/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 48/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 55/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 15 | 11 | 68/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 70/1 |
| 17 | 12 | 82/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 88/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 92/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 98/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 102/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 106/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 114/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 121/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 128/5 |
| 28 | 7 | 135/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 136/5 |
| 30 | 16 | 152/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 158/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 159/5 |
| 33 | 9 | 168/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 174/5 |
| 35 | 12 | 186/5 |
| 36 | 11 | 197/5 |
| 37 | 13 | 210/5 |
| 38 | 13 | 223/5 |
| 39 | 12 | 235/5 |
| 40 | 10 | 245/5 |
| 41 | 9 | 254/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 260/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 269/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 277/6 |
| 45 | 2 | 279/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 284/7 |
| 47 | 2 | 286/7 |
| 48 | 9 | 295/8 |
| 49 | 11 | 306/9 |
| 50 | 10 | 316/9 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
