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Papua New Guinea tour of Guernsey · 2025 · Men
14 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Guernsey started on 42%; Guernsey batted first.
Guernsey's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 34% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sese Baucaught · Isaac Damarell · C Forshaw 13 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Isaac Damarell · b C Forshaw | 85 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 163.46 |
| P Karohobowled · C Forshaw 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b C Forshaw | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| Boio Raybowled · Josh Butler 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Josh Butler | 46 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 131.43 |
 Assad Valanot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 12 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Kiplin Dorigalbw · C Forshaw 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b C Forshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Hila Varenot out 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| not out |
| 9* |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 150.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Nightingale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| LT Bichard0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 7.20 | 2 | 0 |
| A Martel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| C Forshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Butler0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Dale-Bradley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-22 (P Karoho, 3.3) · 2-121 (Boio Ray, 14.0) · 3-159 (Sese Bau, 18.1) · 4-159 (Kiplin Doriga, 18.2)
Recorded target: 166 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 50/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 65/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 76/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 81/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 88/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 102/1 |
| 14 | 19 | 121/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 136/2 |
| 17 | 15 | 151/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 159/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 160/4 |
| 20 | 8 | 168/4 |
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
