New ZealandversusSouth Africa

15 Mar 2026 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 80 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs190/7 South Africa20.0 overs110/7 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

64%New Zealand36%South Africa

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and South Africa won 3
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,595 vs 1,586 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 63%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 48%).

Biggest swings

0.1: S Luus to GE Plimmer, IC Gaze out. South Africa up from 36% to 48%.
0.2: S Luus to AC Kerr, four by AC Kerr. New Zealand up from 52% to 56%.
3.2: K Reyneke to AC Kerr, six by AC Kerr. New Zealand up from 72% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand190/7 South Africa110/7

Innings 2

South Africa

110/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tazmin Britscaught · Amelia Kerr · Sophie Devine 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Sophie Devine	29	35	3	0	82.86
Suné Luuscaught · Suzie Bates · Jess Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Suzie Bates · b Jess Kerr	10	11	1	0	90.91
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Maddy Green · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maddy Green · b Jess Kerr	0	3	0	0	0.00
Annerie Dercksenrun out · Rosemary Mair · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Rosemary Mair	7	16	0	0	43.75

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jess Kerr1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	2	3.25	0
Suzie Bates0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	1
Bree Illing0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	0	4.00	2
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	0	6.00	1
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	30	0	10.00	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	4	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	6	8/0
3	5	13/0
4	4	17/2
5	2	19/2
6	0	19/2
7	5	24/2
8	12	36/2
9	5	41/3
10	3	44/3
11	9	53/3
12	2	55/4
13	6	61/4
14	11	72/4
15	3	75/5
16	7	82/5
17	5	87/5
18	6	93/5
19	5	98/7
20	12	110/7

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