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Photo: Dave Morton
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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
21 Aug 2024 · Test
Old Trafford · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nishan Madushkacaught · Joe Root · Chris Woakes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Chris Woakes | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Harry Brook · Mark Wood 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Mark Wood | 24 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 70.59 |
 Angelo Mathewslbw · Chris Woakes0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b Chris Woakes |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Dinesh Chandimallbw · Shoaib Bashir2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shoaib Bashir | 17 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 42.50 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Daniel Lawrence · Shoaib Bashir 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Lawrence · b Shoaib Bashir | 74 | 84 | 8 | 0 | 88.10 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Jamie Smith · Chris Woakes 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Chris Woakes | 12 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 48.00 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Milan Priyanathcaught · Chris Woakes · Shoaib Bashir 6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Chris Woakes · b Shoaib Bashir | 72 | 135 | 6 | 2 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandorun out · Ollie Pope, Jamie Smith · Joe Root2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ollie Pope, Jamie Smith | 13 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 20.97 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 32 | 3 | 2.91 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson3 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 16.0 | 3 | 48 | 2 | 3.00 | 3 | 1 |
 Matthew Potts0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Wood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Shoaib Bashir4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 4 | 55 | 3 | 2.39 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 2.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 5.3) · 2-6 (Nishan Madushka, 6.1) · 3-6 (Angelo Mathews, 7.0) · 4-40 (Kusal Mendis, 15.1) · 5-72 (Dinesh Chandimal, 22.3) · 6-92 (Kamindu Mendis, 29.0) · 7-113 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 34.0) · 8-176 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 50.2) · 9-226 (Milan Priyanath, 70.4) · 10-236 (Vishwa Fernando, 74.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 4/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 6/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 8/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 14/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 14/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 25/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 29/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 37/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 39/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 41/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 48/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 55/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 61/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 64/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 66/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 71/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 72/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 76/5 |
| 25 | 4 | 80/5 |
| 26 | 4 | 84/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 84/5 |
| 28 | 4 | 88/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 92/6 |
| 30 | 6 | 98/6 |
| 31 | 7 | 105/6 |
| 32 | 2 | 107/6 |
| 33 | 4 | 111/6 |
| 34 | 2 | 113/7 |
| 35 | 1 | 114/7 |
| 36 | 8 | 122/7 |
| 37 | 6 | 128/7 |
| 38 | 6 | 134/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 135/7 |
| 40 | 1 | 136/7 |
| 41 | 10 | 146/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 153/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 153/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 157/7 |
| 45 | 0 | 157/7 |
| 46 | 2 | 159/7 |
| 47 | 1 | 160/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 164/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 169/7 |
| 50 | 7 | 176/7 |
| 51 | 0 | 176/8 |
| 52 | 2 | 178/8 |
| 53 | 2 | 180/8 |
| 54 | 7 | 187/8 |
| 55 | 1 | 188/8 |
| 56 | 2 | 190/8 |
| 57 | 3 | 193/8 |
| 58 | 3 | 196/8 |
| 59 | 8 | 204/8 |
| 60 | 0 | 204/8 |
| 61 | 1 | 205/8 |
| 62 | 1 | 206/8 |
| 63 | 1 | 207/8 |
| 64 | 0 | 207/8 |
| 65 | 0 | 207/8 |
| 66 | 8 | 215/8 |
| 67 | 1 | 216/8 |
| 68 | 0 | 216/8 |
| 69 | 4 | 220/8 |
| 70 | 4 | 224/8 |
| 71 | 2 | 226/9 |
| 72 | 1 | 227/9 |
| 73 | 5 | 232/9 |
| 74 | 4 | 236/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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