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New Zealand tour of Ireland · 2026 · Men
27 May 2026 · Test
Recorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Dohenylbw · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Andrew Balbirniebowled · Nathan Smith1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 81.25 |
| Cade Carmichaelcaught · Tom Latham · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Nathan Smith | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Harry Tectorlbw · Zakary Foulkes3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zakary Foulkes | 16 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 50.00 |
| lbw · b Nathan Smith |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Lorcan Tuckerbowled · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Andrew McBrinenot out12 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 73* | 105 | 12 | 0 | 69.52 |
|---|
| Mark Adaircaught · Tom Blundell · Nathan Smith 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Nathan Smith | 40 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 46.51 |
|---|
| Thomas Mayescaught · Ben Sears · Blair Tickner 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Sears · b Blair Tickner | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| L McCarthycaught · Kane Williamson · Ben Sears 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Ben Sears | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
| R Wilsoncaught · Kane Williamson · Ben Sears 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Ben Sears | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 16 · legbyes: 12 · wides: 0 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith3 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 14.0 | 3 | 40 | 6 | 2.86 | 0 | 2 |
| Zakary Foulkes3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 2.91 | 0 | 0 |
 Blair Tickner1 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Ben Sears1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 3.38 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Mitchell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Foxcroft1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Stephen Doheny, 0.2) · 2-0 (Cade Carmichael, 1.0) · 3-26 (Andrew Balbirnie, 7.0) · 4-34 (Curtis Campher, 8.1) · 5-34 (Lorcan Tucker, 8.5) · 6-38 (Harry Tector, 9.5) · 7-154 (Mark Adair, 38.4) · 8-165 (Thomas Mayes, 41.2) · 9-179 (L McCarthy, 44.3) · 10-179 (R Wilson, 45.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/2 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 7/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 13/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 26/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 34/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 34/5 |
| 10 | 4 | 38/6 |
| 11 | 8 | 46/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 51/6 |
| 13 | 8 | 59/6 |
| 14 | 0 | 59/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 61/6 |
| 16 | 9 | 70/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 75/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 82/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 84/6 |
| 20 | 1 | 85/6 |
| 21 | 9 | 94/6 |
| 22 | 0 | 94/6 |
| 23 | 8 | 102/6 |
| 24 | 7 | 109/6 |
| 25 | 3 | 112/6 |
| 26 | 8 | 120/6 |
| 27 | 6 | 126/6 |
| 28 | 3 | 129/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 133/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 137/6 |
| 31 | 0 | 137/6 |
| 32 | 2 | 139/6 |
| 33 | 5 | 144/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 145/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 146/6 |
| 36 | 0 | 146/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 148/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 150/6 |
| 39 | 8 | 158/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 161/7 |
| 41 | 4 | 165/7 |
| 42 | 2 | 167/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 168/8 |
| 44 | 11 | 179/8 |
| 45 | 0 | 179/10 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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