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New Zealand tour of Ireland · 2026 · Men
27 May 2026 · Test
Recorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathambowled · Mark Adair0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Adair | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · L McCarthy · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L McCarthy · b Mark Adair | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
 Kane Williamsonlbw · L McCarthy5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b L McCarthy | 36 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 51.43 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Thomas Mayes · Harry Tector11 fours · 4 sixes |
| 121 |
| 194 |
| 11 |
| 4 |
| 62.37 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Lorcan Tucker · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Mark Adair | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · MJ Humphreys · R Wilson22 fours · 3 sixes | caught · MJ Humphreys · b R Wilson | 186 | 292 | 22 | 3 | 63.70 |
|---|
| Dean Foxcroftcaught · R Wilson · Andrew McBrine 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · R Wilson · b Andrew McBrine | 98 | 129 | 6 | 1 | 75.97 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithrun out · Jake Egan, Lorcan Tucker · Harry Tector 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jake Egan, Lorcan Tucker | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 130.77 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 19 · wides: 3 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 6 | 66 | 3 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Mayes9 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 2.26 | 0 | 0 |
| R Wilson2 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 25.0 | 2 | 89 | 1 | 3.56 | 0 | 3 |
| L McCarthy2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 2 | 130 | 1 | 5.42 | 3 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 2 | 99 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Harry Tector0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Tom Latham, 0.2) · 2-21 (Devon Conway, 6.1) · 3-85 (Kane Williamson, 21.5) · 4-86 (Daryl Mitchell, 22.1) · 5-303 (Rachin Ravindra, 77.1) · 6-461 (Tom Blundell, 113.5) · 7-486 (Nathan Smith, 118.0) · 8-490 (Dean Foxcroft, 119.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 27/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 35/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 35/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 41/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 46/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 17 | 10 | 61/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 62/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 69/2 |
| 20 | 10 | 79/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 86/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 87/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 87/4 |
| 25 | 0 | 87/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 91/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 91/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 96/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 97/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 100/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 104/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 116/4 |
| 34 | 0 | 116/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 116/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 119/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 126/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 128/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 135/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 141/4 |
| 41 | 11 | 152/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 153/4 |
| 43 | 1 | 154/4 |
| 44 | 7 | 161/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 166/4 |
| 46 | 6 | 172/4 |
| 47 | 5 | 177/4 |
| 48 | 4 | 181/4 |
| 49 | 3 | 184/4 |
| 50 | 10 | 194/4 |
| 51 | 0 | 194/4 |
| 52 | 6 | 200/4 |
| 53 | 0 | 200/4 |
| 54 | 2 | 202/4 |
| 55 | 0 | 202/4 |
| 56 | 5 | 207/4 |
| 57 | 1 | 208/4 |
| 58 | 6 | 214/4 |
| 59 | 0 | 214/4 |
| 60 | 1 | 215/4 |
| 61 | 1 | 216/4 |
| 62 | 3 | 219/4 |
| 63 | 9 | 228/4 |
| 64 | 1 | 229/4 |
| 65 | 0 | 229/4 |
| 66 | 0 | 229/4 |
| 67 | 2 | 231/4 |
| 68 | 7 | 238/4 |
| 69 | 2 | 240/4 |
| 70 | 8 | 248/4 |
| 71 | 3 | 251/4 |
| 72 | 10 | 261/4 |
| 73 | 9 | 270/4 |
| 74 | 18 | 288/4 |
| 75 | 0 | 288/4 |
| 76 | 6 | 294/4 |
| 77 | 9 | 303/4 |
| 78 | 1 | 304/5 |
| 79 | 2 | 306/5 |
| 80 | 2 | 308/5 |
| 81 | 2 | 310/5 |
| 82 | 4 | 314/5 |
| 83 | 8 | 322/5 |
| 84 | 3 | 325/5 |
| 85 | 0 | 325/5 |
| 86 | 8 | 333/5 |
| 87 | 6 | 339/5 |
| 88 | 1 | 340/5 |
| 89 | 6 | 346/5 |
| 90 | 4 | 350/5 |
| 91 | 0 | 350/5 |
| 92 | 7 | 357/5 |
| 93 | 0 | 357/5 |
| 94 | 4 | 361/5 |
| 95 | 0 | 361/5 |
| 96 | 3 | 364/5 |
| 97 | 2 | 366/5 |
| 98 | 4 | 370/5 |
| 99 | 1 | 371/5 |
| 100 | 2 | 373/5 |
| 101 | 8 | 381/5 |
| 102 | 5 | 386/5 |
| 103 | 3 | 389/5 |
| 104 | 7 | 396/5 |
| 105 | 3 | 399/5 |
| 106 | 7 | 406/5 |
| 107 | 3 | 409/5 |
| 108 | 15 | 424/5 |
| 109 | 3 | 427/5 |
| 110 | 2 | 429/5 |
| 111 | 2 | 431/5 |
| 112 | 6 | 437/5 |
| 113 | 13 | 450/5 |
| 114 | 11 | 461/6 |
| 115 | 3 | 464/6 |
| 116 | 9 | 473/6 |
| 117 | 7 | 480/6 |
| 118 | 6 | 486/7 |
| 119 | 4 | 490/8 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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