AustraliaversusOman

5 Jun 2024 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 39 runs

Australia20.0 overs164/5 Oman20.0 overs125/9 Kensington Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

59%Australia41%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Oman (1,668 vs 1,604 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 58%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.3: MA Starc to PS Athavale, PS Athavale out. Australia up from 50% to 63%.
2nd inns 4.5: NT Ellis to KH Prajapati, KH Prajapati out. Australia up from 65% to 76%.
2nd inns 5.6: MP Stoinis to Aqib Ilyas, Aqib Ilyas out. Australia up from 76% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia164/5 Oman125/9

Innings 2

Oman

125/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kashyap Prajapatilbw · Nathan Ellis 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nathan Ellis	7	16	1	0	43.75
PS Athavalelbw · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mitchell Starc	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aaqib Ilyascaught · Matthew Wade · Marcus Stoinis 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Matthew Wade · b Marcus Stoinis	18	18	2	1	100.00
Zeeshan Maqsoodcaught · Matthew Wade · Marcus Stoinis 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Matthew Wade · b Marcus Stoinis	1	7	0	0	14.29
Khalid Kailcaught · Glenn Maxwell · Mitchell Starc 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Mitchell Starc	8	12	1	0	66.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	2	6.67	5
Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	0
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	3	6.33	1
Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	1
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/1
2	2	14/1
3	6	20/1
4	2	22/1
5	1	23/2
6	6	29/3
7	5	34/3
8	1	35/4
9	3	38/4
10	10	48/4
11	6	54/4
12	2	56/5
13	1	57/6
14	11	68/6
15	7	75/6
16	14	89/7
17	7	96/7
18	13	109/7
19	12	121/8
20	4	125/9

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