Sri LankaversusWest Indies

3 Jul 2026 · Test

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

draw

Sri Lanka139.3 overs549/9d West Indies165.5 overs499/10 Sri Lanka49.0 overs251/9d West Indies40.0 overs109/0 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

36%Sri Lanka24%Draw40%West Indies

Why

West Indies are playing at home in Antigua and Barbuda
On results in Tests so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than West Indies (1,468 vs 1,396 on our results rating)
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, Sri Lanka won 5 and West Indies won 2 (3 drawn)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.