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Photo: Trentino Priori
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
17 Jan 2024 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Steve Smithcaught · Justin Greaves · Shamar Joseph2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Justin Greaves · b Shamar Joseph | 12 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 46.15 |
 Usman Khawajacaught · Alick Athanaze · Justin Greaves6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alick Athanaze · b Justin Greaves | 45 | 111 | 6 | 0 | 40.54 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Gudakesh Motie · Shamar Joseph1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Shamar Joseph | 10 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Joshua Da Silva · Shamar Joseph3 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Joshua Da Silva · b Shamar Joseph |
| 14 |
| 27 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 51.85 |
 Travis Headcaught · Kavem Hodge · Alzarri Joseph12 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Kavem Hodge · b Alzarri Joseph | 119 | 134 | 12 | 3 | 88.81 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Justin Greaves · Kemar Roach1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Justin Greaves · b Kemar Roach | 5 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 19.23 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Joshua Da Silva · Justin Greaves2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Da Silva · b Justin Greaves | 15 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Tagenarine Chanderpaul · Shamar Joseph1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tagenarine Chanderpaul · b Shamar Joseph | 10 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 26.32 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminsbowled · Kemar Roach1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kemar Roach | 12 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 34.29 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonbowled · Shamar Joseph2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shamar Joseph | 24 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 70.59 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 0 · noballs: 9 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kemar Roach5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.1 | 5 | 48 | 2 | 2.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph2 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 18.0 | 2 | 55 | 1 | 3.06 | 0 | 4 |
| Shamar Joseph2 maidens · 0 wides · 5 no-balls | 20.0 | 2 | 94 | 5 | 4.70 | 0 | 5 |
| Gudakesh Motie1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Steve Smith, 8.1) · 2-45 (Marnus Labuschagne, 14.5) · 3-67 (Cameron Green, 22.5) · 4-113 (Usman Khawaja, 37.3) · 5-129 (Mitchell Marsh, 43.3) · 6-168 (Alex Carey, 55.0) · 7-222 (Mitchell Starc, 67.4) · 8-255 (Travis Head, 73.1) · 9-283 (Nathan Lyon, 81.0) · 10-283 (Pat Cummins, 81.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 25/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 52/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 53/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 58/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 59/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 68/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 69/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 69/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 75/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 85/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 93/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 94/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 94/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 35 | 0 | 100/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 107/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 38 | 1 | 113/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 120/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 120/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 122/4 |
| 42 | 0 | 122/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 128/4 |
| 44 | 4 | 132/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 137/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 138/5 |
| 47 | 3 | 141/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 144/5 |
| 49 | 1 | 145/5 |
| 50 | 7 | 152/5 |
| 51 | 2 | 154/5 |
| 52 | 0 | 154/5 |
| 53 | 1 | 155/5 |
| 54 | 8 | 163/5 |
| 55 | 5 | 168/6 |
| 56 | 5 | 173/6 |
| 57 | 3 | 176/6 |
| 58 | 4 | 180/6 |
| 59 | 2 | 182/6 |
| 60 | 5 | 187/6 |
| 61 | 3 | 190/6 |
| 62 | 3 | 193/6 |
| 63 | 2 | 195/6 |
| 64 | 3 | 198/6 |
| 65 | 7 | 205/6 |
| 66 | 11 | 216/6 |
| 67 | 5 | 221/6 |
| 68 | 2 | 223/7 |
| 69 | 11 | 234/7 |
| 70 | 16 | 250/7 |
| 71 | 3 | 253/7 |
| 72 | 1 | 254/7 |
| 73 | 1 | 255/7 |
| 74 | 4 | 259/8 |
| 75 | 1 | 260/8 |
| 76 | 5 | 265/8 |
| 77 | 5 | 270/8 |
| 78 | 0 | 270/8 |
| 79 | 2 | 272/8 |
| 80 | 3 | 275/8 |
| 81 | 8 | 283/9 |
| 82 | 0 | 283/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kemar Roach: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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