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**Eden Park, Auckland**
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India tour of New Zealand · 2026/27 · Men

New ZealandversusIndia

30 Oct 2026 · T20

Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 87 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs259/7 India20.0 overs172/9 Eden Park, Auckland ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

15%New Zealand85%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,798 vs 1,566 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and New Zealand won 1
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 13%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 91%).

Biggest swings

7.6: AR Patel to FH Allen, FH Allen out. India up from 62% to 70%.
10.4: MP Yadav to BJ Jacobs, BJ Jacobs out. India up from 64% to 72%.
2nd inns 0.2: JA Duffy to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 80% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match highlights

All highlights →

1–1 of 3

Match details

Toss: India chose to field
Player of the match: Glenn Phillips
match referees: RS Madugalle
reserve umpires: SB Haig
tv umpires: Kim Cotton
umpires: CM Brown, PJ Gillespie

Match history & source

On 30 Oct 2026, New Zealand played India at Eden Park, Auckland. Recorded result: New Zealand won by 87 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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