New ZealandversusAustralia

8 Mar 2024 · Test

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 3 wickets

New Zealand45.2 overs162/10 Australia68.0 overs256/10 New Zealand108.2 overs372/10 Australia65.0 overs281/7 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

34%New Zealand17%Draw49%Australia

Why

New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
On results in Tests so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,714 vs 1,604 on our results rating)
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 1 (1 drawn)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.