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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
8 Mar 2024 · Test
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 38 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 55.07 |
 Will Youngcaught · Mitchell Marsh · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Mitchell Starc | 14 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 24.56 |
 Kane Williamsonlbw · Josh Hazlewood2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Josh Hazlewood | 17 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 45.95 |
| caught · Usman Khawaja · b Josh Hazlewood |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Alex Carey · Cameron Green3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Cameron Green | 22 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 70.97 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Scott Kuggeleijnlbw · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 29 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 103.57 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Josh Hazlewood · Pat Cummins2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Hazlewood · b Pat Cummins | 26 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 130.00 |
|---|
| Ben Searsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 59 | 3 | 4.92 | 5 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.2 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 3.18 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Marsh1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 1 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-47 (Will Young, 18.5) · 2-61 (Tom Latham, 21.3) · 3-71 (Rachin Ravindra, 25.2) · 4-79 (Daryl Mitchell, 29.3) · 5-84 (Kane Williamson, 31.5) · 6-107 (Glenn Phillips, 36.5) · 7-107 (Scott Kuggeleijn, 37.0) · 8-107 (Tom Blundell, 37.2) · 9-162 (Tim Southee, 45.0) · 10-162 (Matt Henry, 45.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 29/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 34/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 34/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 35/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 36/0 |
| 16 | 5 | 41/0 |
| 17 | 6 | 47/0 |
| 18 | 0 | 47/0 |
| 19 | 0 | 47/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 21 | 9 | 61/1 |
| 22 | 0 | 61/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 63/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 65/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 71/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 71/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 71/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 71/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 79/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 83/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 84/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 89/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 96/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 98/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 103/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 107/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 109/8 |
| 39 | 7 | 116/8 |
| 40 | 10 | 126/8 |
| 41 | 10 | 136/8 |
| 42 | 4 | 140/8 |
| 43 | 10 | 150/8 |
| 44 | 5 | 155/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 162/9 |
| 46 | 0 | 162/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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