New ZealandversusEngland

26 Jun 2024 · ODI

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 9 wickets

New Zealand33.3 overs156/10 England21.2 overs157/1 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

19%New Zealand81%England

Why

On results in ODIs so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,702 vs 1,505 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, England won 7 and New Zealand won 3

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 18%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (England: 69% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: L Filer to SW Bates, SW Bates out. England up from 69% to 79%.
10.1: NR Sciver-Brunt to AC Kerr, GE Plimmer out. England up from 73% to 79%.
11.4: S Ecclestone to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. England up from 75% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand156/10 England157/1

Innings 2

England

157/121.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tammy Beaumontnot out 11 fours · 1 sixes	not out	76*	69	11	1	110.14
Maia Bouchiercaught · Suzie Bates · Brooke Halliday 12 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Suzie Bates · b Brooke Halliday	67	50	12	1	134.00
Heather Knightnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes	not out	9*	11	1	0	81.82
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	1	16/0
3	2	18/0
4	5	23/0
5	10	33/0
6	5	38/0
7	6	44/0
8	7	51/0
9	9	60/0
10	8	68/0
11	12	80/0
12	4	84/0
13	6	90/0
14	17	107/0
15	10	117/0
16	8	125/0
17	11	136/0
18	3	139/1
19	6	145/1
20	2	147/1
21	6	153/1
22	4	157/1

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