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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
26 Jul 2024 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 69%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Richie Berrington · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Brandon McMullen | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
| Jean-Pierre Kotzelbw · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jan Frylincklbw · Brandon McMullen 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brandon McMullen | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 31.58 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Richie Berrington · Brad Currie 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Brad Currie | 53 | 73 | 6 | 0 | 72.60 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Matty Cross · Gavin Main4 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
Scotland's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 27 |
| 42 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 64.29 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Gavin Main · Brad Currie 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gavin Main · b Brad Currie | 11 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 52.38 |
|---|
| Zane Greenbowled · Michael Leask 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Michael Leask | 28 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Shaun Fouchébowled · Michael Leask 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Michael Leask | 18 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzcaught · Michael English · Gavin Main 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael English · b Gavin Main | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Tangeni Lungamenicaught · Mark Watt · Gavin Main 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Gavin Main | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Ben Shikongonot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 2.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Cassell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4.83 | 2 | 0 |
| Gavin Main1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 1 | 32 | 3 | 4.47 | 2 | 0 |
 Mark Watt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 0.2) · 2-8 (Jan Frylinck, 3.5) · 3-9 (Michael van Lingen, 5.2) · 4-81 (Malan Kruger, 19.3) · 5-106 (JJ Smit, 26.3) · 6-112 (Gerhard Erasmus, 28.3) · 7-144 (Shaun Fouché, 35.1) · 8-149 (Bernard Scholtz, 36.1) · 9-161 (Zane Green, 39.4) · 10-163 (Tangeni Lungameni, 40.1)
Recorded target: 302 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 9/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 9/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 9/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 13/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 15/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 18/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 25/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 29/3 |
| 13 | 11 | 40/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 53/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 18 | 13 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 78/3 |
| 20 | 8 | 86/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 86/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 88/4 |
| 23 | 6 | 94/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 101/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 103/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 106/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 109/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 111/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 115/6 |
| 30 | 1 | 116/6 |
| 31 | 8 | 124/6 |
| 32 | 5 | 129/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 136/6 |
| 34 | 2 | 138/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 144/6 |
| 36 | 5 | 149/7 |
| 37 | 1 | 150/8 |
| 38 | 5 | 155/8 |
| 39 | 0 | 155/8 |
| 40 | 8 | 163/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 163/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Shikongo: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
