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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
15 Aug 2024 · ODI
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 66%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittbowled · J Drysdale 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Drysdale | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Max O'Dowdbowled · Steven Taylor 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Steven Taylor | 49 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 73.13 |
| Vikramjit Singhrun out · Smit Patel, Nosthush Kenjige · Milind Kumar 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smit Patel, Nosthush Kenjige | 59 | 83 | 4 | 0 | 71.08 |
| Wesley Barresilbw · Milind Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Milind Kumar | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
| Scott Edwardscaught · Shadley van Schalkwyk · Jasdeep Singh 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadley van Schalkwyk · b Jasdeep Singh | 65 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 118.18 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Steven Taylor, Smit Patel |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 400.00 |
| Shariz Ahmadbowled · Milind Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Milind Kumar | 16 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 39.02 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 18* | 13 | 1 | 1 | 138.46 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 4.83 | 0 | 0 |
| J Drysdale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Taylor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 7.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (Michael Levitt, 3.2) · 2-114 (Max O'Dowd, 26.0) · 3-128 (Vikramjit Singh, 31.2) · 4-129 (Wesley Barresi, 31.5) · 5-134 (Noah Croes, 32.2) · 6-203 (Shariz Ahmad, 46.0) · 7-237 (Scott Edwards, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 31/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 55/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 83/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 87/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 90/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 97/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 98/1 |
| 24 | 7 | 105/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 107/1 |
| 26 | 7 | 114/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 116/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 117/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 122/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 125/2 |
| 31 | 3 | 128/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 133/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 136/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 138/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 144/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 147/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 151/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 153/5 |
| 39 | 13 | 166/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 171/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 176/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 181/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 186/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 189/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 197/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 203/6 |
| 47 | 7 | 210/6 |
| 48 | 7 | 217/6 |
| 49 | 15 | 232/6 |
| 50 | 5 | 237/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.