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Myanmar tour of Indonesia · 2024/25 · Men
17 Nov 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Indonesia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 82%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 25%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dharma Kesumacaught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · Htet Lin Aung 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · b Htet Lin Aung | 28 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 147.37 |
| FFJ Heorun out · Htet Lin Aung, Thuya Aung · Htet Lin Aung 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Htet Lin Aung, Thuya Aung | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Anjar Tadaruscaught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · Htet Lin Aung 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · b Htet Lin Aung | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| PR Survecaught · Pyae Phyo Wai · Paing Danu 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pyae Phyo Wai · b Paing Danu | 13 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
| Kadek Gamantikanot out 6 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 78* | 47 | 6 | 4 | 165.96 |
| caught · Pyae Phyo Wai · b Paing Danu |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Ketut Artawancaught · Hein Zin Aung · Aung Ko Ko 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hein Zin Aung · b Aung Ko Ko | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Danilson Hawoebowled · SMHH Aung 3 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b SMHH Aung | 40 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 235.29 |
|---|
| Gede Artanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khin Aye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Htet Lin Aung0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Nyein Cham Soe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Pyae Phyo Wai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Paing Danu0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Aung Ko Ko0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| SMHH Aung0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 17.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Hein Zin Aung0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (FFJ Heo, 1.1) · 2-35 (Anjar Tadarus, 4.0) · 3-38 (Dharma Kesuma, 5.1) · 4-92 (PR Surve, 12.1) · 5-106 (Ahmad Ramdoni, 14.3) · 6-110 (Ketut Artawan, 15.1) · 7-168 (Danilson Hawoe, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 16/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 23/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 35/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 38/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 41/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 46/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 52/3 |
| 9 | 12 | 64/3 |
| 10 | 11 | 75/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 82/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 92/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 94/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 99/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 110/5 |
| 16 | 14 | 124/6 |
| 17 | 15 | 139/6 |
| 18 | 16 | 155/6 |
| 19 | 17 | 172/7 |
| 20 | 13 | 185/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.