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Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
11 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 69%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalcaught · Piumi Wathsala · Inoka Ranaweera 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Piumi Wathsala · b Inoka Ranaweera | 30 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 61.22 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Harshitha Madavi · Dewmi Vihanga15 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Dewmi Vihanga | 116 | 101 | 15 | 2 | 114.85 |
| Harleen Deolcaught and bowled · Dewmi Vihanga 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Dewmi Vihanga | 47 | 56 | 4 | 0 | 83.93 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Malki Madara · Sugandika Kumari4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Malki Madara · b Sugandika Kumari | 41 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 136.67 |
India's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Sugandika Kumari |
| 44 |
| 29 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 151.72 |
 Richa Ghoshcaught · H Karunaratne · Malki Madara0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · H Karunaratne · b Malki Madara | 8 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurcaught · H Karunaratne · Malki Madara 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · H Karunaratne · b Malki Madara | 18 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmanot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 14 | 3 | 0 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 17 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara0 maidens · 12 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 74 | 2 | 7.40 | 12 | 1 |
| Dewmi Vihanga0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 2 | 6.90 | 3 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 2 | 5.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 6.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 7.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Piumi Wathsala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-70 (Pratika Rawal, 14.5) · 2-190 (Smriti Mandhana, 32.3) · 3-219 (Harleen Deol, 36.4) · 4-267 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 42.0) · 5-294 (Richa Ghosh, 44.4) · 6-304 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 46.0) · 7-341 (Amanjot Kaur, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 33/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 39/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 45/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 49/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 53/0 |
| 13 | 11 | 64/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 68/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 70/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 71/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 75/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 83/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 85/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 90/1 |
| 21 | 6 | 96/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 101/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 107/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 109/1 |
| 25 | 11 | 120/1 |
| 26 | 12 | 132/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 135/1 |
| 28 | 7 | 142/1 |
| 29 | 8 | 150/1 |
| 30 | 6 | 156/1 |
| 31 | 17 | 173/1 |
| 32 | 9 | 182/1 |
| 33 | 11 | 193/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 198/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 204/2 |
| 36 | 11 | 215/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 221/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 229/3 |
| 39 | 11 | 240/3 |
| 40 | 12 | 252/3 |
| 41 | 10 | 262/3 |
| 42 | 5 | 267/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 276/4 |
| 44 | 12 | 288/4 |
| 45 | 8 | 296/5 |
| 46 | 8 | 304/6 |
| 47 | 7 | 311/6 |
| 48 | 11 | 322/6 |
| 49 | 5 | 327/6 |
| 50 | 15 | 342/7 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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