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South Africa tour of Namibia · 2026 · Men
11 Sept 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 68%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Jordan Hermann · Eathan Bosch 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jordan Hermann · b Eathan Bosch | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Dewald Brevis · Duan Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewald Brevis · b Duan Jansen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Jason Smith · Eathan Bosch 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Smith · b Eathan Bosch | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Connor Esterhuizen · Duan Jansen 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b Duan Jansen | 12 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 63.16 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · RA Herman · N Mokoena6 fours · 1 sixes |
South Africa's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · RA Herman · b N Mokoena |
| 68 |
| 84 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 80.95 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Connor Esterhuizen · Duan Jansen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b Duan Jansen | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Zane Greencaught · Dewald Brevis · Jason Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewald Brevis · b Jason Smith | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
|---|
| JC Baltrun out · Dewald Brevis · N Mokoena 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dewald Brevis | 26 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 50.98 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · Eathan Bosch 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Eathan Bosch | 30 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 111.11 |
|---|
| W Smithlbw · Duan Jansen 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Duan Jansen | 10 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 52.63 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duan Jansen2 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 31 | 4 | 3.44 | 6 | 0 |
| Eathan Bosch1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 1 | 27 | 3 | 3.45 | 0 | 0 |
| N Mokoena0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.43 | 4 | 0 |
| Jason Smith1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Prenelan Subrayen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 3.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 6.71 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Michael van Lingen, 1.5) · 2-1 (Malan Kruger, 2.2) · 3-1 (Jan Frylinck, 3.2) · 4-20 (Louren Steenkamp, 8.1) · 5-32 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 10.2) · 6-59 (Zane Green, 16.1) · 7-130 (JC Balt, 32.1) · 8-136 (Gerhard Erasmus, 34.2) · 9-174 (W Smith, 40.1) · 10-178 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 41.5)
Recorded target: 336 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2/3 |
| 5 | 4 | 6/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 9/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 10/3 |
| 8 | 10 | 20/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 26/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 32/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 35/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 42/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 49/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 54/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 56/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 59/5 |
| 17 | 0 | 59/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 66/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 70/6 |
| 20 | 2 | 72/6 |
| 21 | 8 | 80/6 |
| 22 | 5 | 85/6 |
| 23 | 7 | 92/6 |
| 24 | 4 | 96/6 |
| 25 | 8 | 104/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 106/6 |
| 27 | 8 | 114/6 |
| 28 | 3 | 117/6 |
| 29 | 2 | 119/6 |
| 30 | 3 | 122/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 127/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 130/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 133/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 135/7 |
| 35 | 7 | 142/8 |
| 36 | 2 | 144/8 |
| 37 | 3 | 147/8 |
| 38 | 6 | 153/8 |
| 39 | 7 | 160/8 |
| 40 | 14 | 174/8 |
| 41 | 3 | 177/9 |
| 42 | 1 | 178/10 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
