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South Africa tour of Namibia · 2026 · Men
11 Sept 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 68%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hermanncaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Jack Brassell 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Jack Brassell | 20 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 83.33 |
| Connor Esterhuizencaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Ruben Trumpelmann 8 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 119 | 110 | 8 | 6 | 108.18 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Jan Frylinck · Jack Brassell 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b Jack Brassell | 79 | 87 | 6 | 1 | 90.80 |
| Matthew Breetzkebowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Dewald Breviscaught · Jack Brassell · Ruben Trumpelmann 0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Jack Brassell · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 37 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 30 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 123.33 |
| Jason Smithbowled · JC Balt 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b JC Balt | 18 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Eathan Boschcaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Jack Brassell 0 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Jack Brassell | 29 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 223.08 |
|---|
| Duan Jansencaught · Gerhard Erasmus · JC Balt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b JC Balt | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Prenelan Subrayencaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Jack Brassell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Jack Brassell | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Nqaba Peternot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| N Mokoenanot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmann1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 57 | 2 | 5.70 | 2 | 1 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 4 | 6.40 | 2 | 0 |
| JC Balt0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 2 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| W Smith1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 56 | 0 | 6.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 7.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Jordan Hermann, 7.1) · 2-214 (Connor Esterhuizen, 35.1) · 3-231 (Tony de Zorzi, 37.3) · 4-233 (Matthew Breetzke, 38.3) · 5-283 (Dewald Brevis, 45.2) · 6-317 (Eathan Bosch, 48.0) · 7-317 (Jason Smith, 48.1) · 8-320 (Duan Jansen, 48.4) · 9-325 (Prenelan Subrayen, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 43/1 |
| 12 | 11 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 56/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 67/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 71/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 80/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 84/1 |
| 19 | 9 | 93/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 96/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 99/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 100/1 |
| 23 | 0 | 100/1 |
| 24 | 10 | 110/1 |
| 25 | 9 | 119/1 |
| 26 | 9 | 128/1 |
| 27 | 7 | 135/1 |
| 28 | 15 | 150/1 |
| 29 | 8 | 158/1 |
| 30 | 10 | 168/1 |
| 31 | 4 | 172/1 |
| 32 | 9 | 181/1 |
| 33 | 11 | 192/1 |
| 34 | 14 | 206/1 |
| 35 | 8 | 214/1 |
| 36 | 8 | 222/2 |
| 37 | 4 | 226/2 |
| 38 | 6 | 232/3 |
| 39 | 2 | 234/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 242/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 248/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 255/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 259/4 |
| 44 | 19 | 278/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 283/4 |
| 46 | 3 | 286/5 |
| 47 | 13 | 299/5 |
| 48 | 18 | 317/6 |
| 49 | 6 | 323/8 |
| 50 | 12 | 335/9 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
