MalaysiaversusQatar

11 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 39 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs115/9 Qatar19.4 overs76/10 Selangor Turf Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

76%Malaysia24%Qatar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Qatar (1,484 vs 1,360 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 1 and Qatar won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 74%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Qatar: 0% to 26%).

Biggest swings

6.2: SA Panayan to Wan Julia, Wan Julia out. Qatar up from 21% to 25%.
19.6: Aysha to Nur Dania Syuhada, 1 run to Nur Dania Syuhada. Malaysia up from 83% to 89%.
2nd inns 1.5: Nur Arianna Natsya to SK Rana, SK Rana out. Malaysia up from 86% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia115/9 Qatar76/10

Innings 2

Qatar

76/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Qatar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
SK Ranarun out · Nur Arianna Natsya · Nur Arianna Natsya 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Nur Arianna Natsya	1	9	0	0	11.11
A Marecaught · Wan Julia · Winifred Duraisingam 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wan Julia · b Winifred Duraisingam	36	46	2	0	78.26
S Dhadwalstumped · Wan Julia · Mahirah Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Wan Julia · b Mahirah Ismail	3	12	0	0	25.00
Aysharun out · Mahirah Ismail · Mahirah Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Mahirah Ismail	0	1	0	0	0.00
Khadija Imtiazrun out · Wan Julia · Mahirah Ismail 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Wan Julia	6	13	1	0	46.15

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	1	2.75	0
Nur Arianna Natsya0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	9
Mahirah Ismail1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	1	3.25	1
Winifred Duraisingam1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	1	12	1	3.27	0
Mas Elysa1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	8	1	2.67	0
Nur Dania Syuhada0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	9	10/1
3	5	15/1
4	0	15/1
5	2	17/1
6	1	18/3
7	1	19/3
8	7	26/3
9	8	34/3
10	5	39/4
11	3	42/4
12	4	46/4
13	0	46/5
14	6	52/6
15	6	58/6
16	6	64/7
17	1	65/8
18	5	70/8
19	4	74/9
20	2	76/10

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