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Photo: Paul Williams from United Kingdom
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Pakistan Women tour of England · 2024 · Women
29 May 2024 · ODI
The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 91%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 89% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 11%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamasbowled · Lauren Bell 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Bell | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Maia Bouchier · Lauren Bell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maia Bouchier · b Lauren Bell | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 90.91 |
| Muneeba Alicaught · Maia Bouchier · Nat Sciver-Brunt 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maia Bouchier · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 47 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 85.45 |
| Ayesha Zafarcaught · Charlie Dean · Kate Cross 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Dean · b Kate Cross | 13 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 92.86 |
| Najiha Alvibowled · Nat Sciver-Brunt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · SIR Dunkley · b Sophie Ecclestone |
| 36 |
| 41 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 87.80 |
| Fatima Sanalbw · Charlie Dean 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charlie Dean | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Umm-e-Hanilbw · Sophie Ecclestone 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sophie Ecclestone | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhucaught · Heather Knight · Sophie Ecclestone 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Heather Knight · b Sophie Ecclestone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Diana Baignot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 3.80 | 0 | 1 |
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 5.20 | 4 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 6.71 | 1 | 0 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Alice Capsey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Sadaf Shamas, 1.4) · 2-14 (Sidra Ameen, 3.3) · 3-35 (Ayesha Zafar, 6.3) · 4-74 (Najiha Alvi, 15.2) · 5-95 (Muneeba Ali, 20.0) · 6-96 (Fatima Sana, 20.4) · 7-123 (Umm-e-Hani, 27.4) · 8-123 (Nashra Sandhu, 27.5) · 9-124 (Aliya Riaz, 29.1)
Absent hurt: Nida Dar
Recorded target: 303 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 34/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 40/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 41/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 45/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 50/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 50/3 |
| 13 | 15 | 65/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 66/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 74/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 77/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 83/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 88/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 93/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 95/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 96/6 |
| 22 | 1 | 97/6 |
| 23 | 7 | 104/6 |
| 24 | 6 | 110/6 |
| 25 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 26 | 8 | 122/6 |
| 27 | 1 | 123/6 |
| 28 | 0 | 123/8 |
| 29 | 1 | 124/8 |
| 30 | 0 | 124/9 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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