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Pakistan Women tour of England · 2024 · Women
29 May 2024 · ODI
The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 91%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 89% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 11%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontbowled · Fatima Sana1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fatima Sana | 11 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Fatima Sana · Diana Baig 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fatima Sana · b Diana Baig | 34 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 103.03 |
 Heather Knightlbw · Umm-e-Hani1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Umm-e-Hani | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntnot out14 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 124* | 117 | 14 | 2 | 105.98 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sidra Ameen · b Nida Dar |
| 44 |
| 42 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 104.76 |
 Amy Jonescaught · Najiha Alvi · Umm-e-Hani3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najiha Alvi · b Umm-e-Hani | 27 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Alice Capseynot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 39* | 42 | 4 | 0 | 92.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Baig1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 60 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Nida Dar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 8.14 | 4 | 0 |
| Umm-e-Hani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 5.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Aliya Riaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-35 (Tammy Beaumont, 7.2) · 2-56 (Maia Bouchier, 11.0) · 3-70 (Heather Knight, 13.1) · 4-149 (Danielle Wyatt, 26.3) · 5-215 (Amy Jones, 37.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 12 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 53/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 56/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 63/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 70/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 75/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 78/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 83/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 92/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 97/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 104/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 111/3 |
| 22 | 9 | 120/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 129/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 134/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 142/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 147/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 152/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 158/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 159/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 167/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 172/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 177/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 187/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 190/4 |
| 35 | 11 | 201/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 207/4 |
| 37 | 8 | 215/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 217/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 223/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 227/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 233/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 239/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 242/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 249/5 |
| 45 | 2 | 251/5 |
| 46 | 2 | 253/5 |
| 47 | 2 | 255/5 |
| 48 | 15 | 270/5 |
| 49 | 20 | 290/5 |
| 50 | 12 | 302/5 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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