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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
22 Oct 2026 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 54%; England batted first.
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-22
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-22
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamindu Mendisbowled · Josh Tongue 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 18 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 112.50 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught and bowled · Jamie Overton 11 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jamie Overton | 97 | 83 | 11 | 2 | 116.87 |
| Kusal Mendisrun out · Gus Atkinson · Gus Atkinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gus Atkinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Tom Banton · Sam Curran 15 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Sam Curran | 130 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 122.64 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Tom Banton · Liam Dawson 6 fours · 8 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Liam Dawson | 97 | 50 | 6 | 8 | 194.00 |
England's chances ranged from 14% to 99% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 61* |
| 27 |
| 7 |
| 3 |
| 225.93 |
| Sahan Arachchigecaught · Will Jacks · Sam Curran 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Sam Curran | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 162.50 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagebowled · Josh Tongue 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingabowled · Josh Tongue 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 8.14 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Tongue1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 1 | 79 | 3 | 8.94 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 77 | 1 | 7.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 71 | 1 | 7.10 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 103 | 2 | 11.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 8.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Kamindu Mendis, 4.0) · 2-24 (Kusal Mendis, 4.2) · 3-190 (Avishka Fernando, 27.1) · 4-323 (Pavan Rathnayake, 40.2) · 5-363 (Dasun Shanaka, 44.0) · 6-406 (Sahan Arachchige, 47.0) · 7-423 (Dunith Wellalage, 49.2) · 8-423 (Eshan Malinga, 49.3)
Recorded target: 430 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 30/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 38/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 44/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 44/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 60/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 13 | 11 | 78/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 85/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 95/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 97/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 106/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 114/2 |
| 19 | 10 | 124/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 131/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 135/2 |
| 22 | 9 | 144/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 152/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 159/2 |
| 25 | 10 | 169/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 178/2 |
| 27 | 12 | 190/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 194/3 |
| 29 | 18 | 212/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 217/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 223/3 |
| 32 | 11 | 234/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 240/3 |
| 34 | 10 | 250/3 |
| 35 | 10 | 260/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 264/3 |
| 37 | 10 | 274/3 |
| 38 | 18 | 292/3 |
| 39 | 17 | 309/3 |
| 40 | 12 | 321/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 326/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 330/4 |
| 43 | 20 | 350/4 |
| 44 | 13 | 363/5 |
| 45 | 14 | 377/5 |
| 46 | 10 | 387/5 |
| 47 | 19 | 406/6 |
| 48 | 11 | 417/6 |
| 49 | 5 | 422/6 |
| 50 | 8 | 430/8 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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